2026 Lowy Institute Poll: Australians’ trust in the United States hits record low as economic pessimism surges

Australians are losing confidence in world leaders, with 60% saying they have ‘no confidence at all’ in President Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs.

The 2026 Lowy Institute Poll also reveals more Australians are pessimistic about the country’s economic performance now than during the Covid pandemic or the Global Financial Crisis.

The Lowy Institute’s Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM, said the 22nd Lowy Institute Poll was a snapshot of Australians’ thinking as they reckon with a world in flux.

“In 2026, the liberal international order has been replaced by something illiberal, nationalistic, and disorderly,” Dr Fullilove said.

“Australians are wary of Donald Trump’s America. Less than a third of Australians trust Washington to act responsibly in the world, and confidence in President Trump to do the right thing in world affairs has fallen again since last year’s Poll.”

“But nearly three-quarters of Australians say the US alliance remains important to our security, and support for the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS has held firm.”

The Poll report’s author, Research Fellow Charles Lyons-Jones, said the findings painted a picture of an Australian public recalibrating its understanding of the world.

“Six in ten Australians are now pessimistic about the economy — a 12-point jump from last year and the highest figure ever recorded in the Poll’s history,” Lyons-Jones said.

“A majority of Australians now say they feel unsafe in the world today, a record for the Lowy Institute Poll."

“Australians are also growing anxious about societal change, with 64% saying the risks of artificial intelligence outweigh the benefits. A record-high proportion of Australians say the current intake of migrants is too high."

“The largest single movement on any societal question in the Poll’s 22-year history is on cultural diversity. The proportion of Australians who say that cultural diversity has been good for the country has fallen 17 points over the past two years — a shift without precedent in our polling.”

Key findings from the 2026 Lowy Institute Poll include:

• Trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world has fallen to 31 per cent, the lowest level ever recorded in the Lowy Institute Poll — a five-point drop from 2025 and a 25-point drop from 2024. Trust in China, by contrast, has risen eight points to 28 per cent, narrowing the gap between the two superpowers to just three points. In 2022, that gap was 53 points.
  
• Confidence in President Donald Trump stands at 21 per cent — the lowest level of confidence in any US president in the history of Lowy Institute polling. Six in ten Australians (60%) say they have ‘no confidence at all’ in the President to do the right thing in world affairs.
  
• For the first time in the Poll’s history, a majority of Australians (51%) say Australia’s relationship with China is more important than its relationship with the United States — an eight-point increase from 2025.
  
• Six in ten Australians (59%) are pessimistic about Australia’s economic performance over the next five years, a 12-point increase from last year and the highest result on this question in the Poll’s history — 11 points above the level recorded during the Covid pandemic in 2020, and 46 points above that recorded after the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
  
• A majority of Australians (53%) say they feel ‘unsafe’ or ‘very unsafe’ in the world — the lowest level of safety ever recorded in the Poll and three points below the previous record set in 2020 at the onset of Covid.
  
• Support for the Australia–United States alliance remains strong, with nearly three-quarters of Australians (73%) saying the alliance is important to Australia’s security — though this represents a seven-point drop from 2025 and a ten-point drop from 2024, the sharpest sustained fall in the Poll’s history.
  
• Support for cultural diversity has recorded the largest two-year movement on any societal question in the Poll’s history. Three-quarters of Australians (73%) still view it positively, but this is a near 20-point drop from the 90 per cent recorded in 2024.
  
• Support for AUKUS and Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines held firm, with two-thirds of Australians (68%) in favour of the program.
  
• For the first time in the Poll’s history, more respondents say China (39%) rather than Australia (33%) has the most influence in Pacific Island countries — a reversal of last year’s result.
  
• A clear majority of Australians (64%) say the risks of artificial intelligence outweigh its benefits, a 12-point increase since 2024.

ABOUT THE LOWY INSTITUTE POLL

Now in its 22nd edition, the Lowy Institute’s flagship annual poll is the longest-running and broadest survey of Australian public opinion on the world. For more than two decades, it has revealed changing attitudes and played an influential role in public debate on foreign policy.

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