China’s capacity to strike Australia is expanding

China can already strike northern Australia with ballistic missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts, and its capacity to hit the Australian mainland will grow substantially over the next decade, a new Lowy Institute Analysis warns.

The Analysis, entitled Understanding the Chinese military threat to Australia, by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance, provides a comprehensive public assessment of the military threat China poses to Australia.

The authors track the dramatic rise in Chinese defence spending over the past 30 years, estimating it will reach approximately US$977 billion by 2035 — almost double the current figure.

Beijing’s objective, they argue, is to build a world-class military that can fight and win against technologically advanced adversaries.

Roggeveen and Vallance say that the direct strike threat posed by China to Australia is real and growing, primarily from missiles fired from surface ships, submarines, and potentially from Chinese territory via intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Chinese cyber operations also pose a threat to Australia that its geography cannot mitigate.

They warn that two possible developments within the decade could quickly and dramatically increase the threat of Chinese military strikes on Australia:

First, China could field a new long-range bomber.

“China is known to be developing the stealthy H-20,” write Roggeveen and Vallance. “Evidence has also emerged of a stealthy drone with the size and range to strike anywhere in Australia. It is not known if or when this aircraft will enter service.”

Second, China could deploy existing missiles and aircraft to bases closer to Australian territory.

“China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018. Any such base would bring central Australia within H-6 bomber combat range and allow attacks to be mounted more frequently.”

Despite the growing risk of strikes on mainland Australia, the authors note that the most immediate and serious threat to Australian security does not require Chinese weapons to reach Australian territory.

“China already possesses robust capabilities to interdict Australia’s maritime trade through the chokepoints of the Indonesian archipelago, to sever undersea cables on which Australian communications and commerce depend, and to conduct sophisticated cyber operations against Australia’s critical infrastructure,” they write.

“China’s military build-up is reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power in ways that affect Australian security regardless of China’s ability to strike Australian territory.”

KEY FINDINGS

• China’s ability to direct military force against Australia operates primarily through domains other than direct strikes on the Australian landmass. Its ability to interdict Australia’s maritime trade, sever undersea communications infrastructure, conduct sophisticated cyber operations, and project naval power into Australian waters is robust and will grow substantially over the coming decade.
• China can already strike northern Australia with ballistic missiles deployed to its South China Sea outposts, and its capacity to strike the Australian landmass from Chinese territory will grow over the next decade as the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, and potentially a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile, grow in service numbers.
• Two factors could quickly and dramatically escalate the strike threat against the Australian landmass: China could field a new long-range bomber (a crewed or drone aircraft), or it could deploy existing bombers and missiles to bases closer to Australia.
• China’s military build-up has already eroded US military primacy in the Indo-Pacific, increased the threat to Taiwan, and created structural pressure on regional states to accommodate Beijing’s preferences. These shifts affect Australian security regardless of China’s capacity to strike Australian territory.

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Andrew Griffits
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