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Threats to Australia’s vital interestsThreats to Australia’s vital interests
About the author
Natasha Kassam
Natasha Kassam was Director of the Lowy Institute's Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program from 2019 to 2022, directing the annual Lowy Institute Poll and researching China’s politics, Taiwan, and Australia-China relations.
Concerns about non-traditional security threats continue to dominate Australians’ views of potential threats in 2021. Cyberattacks and climate change top the list of threats, with Covid-19 close behind. Six in ten Australians say that cyberattacks from other countries and climate change (62% and 61% respectively) pose critical Threats to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.
Fewer Australians (59%) see Covid-19 as a critical threat in 2021, down 17 points from last year. This lower threat ranking may reflect Australia’s management of the pandemic, which almost all Australians (95%) say has been handled very or fairly well.
Traditional security threats, such as the risk of armed conflict in the region, remain of concern to many Australians. Perhaps responding to recent media reporting of increased military activities in the Taiwan Strait, a majority of Australians (52%) say a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, an increase of 17 points from 2020. Just over half the population (56%) also say that Australia–China relations pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years.
Australians’ concerns about nuclear threats and terrorism have eased in recent years, though still remain a critical threat for the majority. More than half the population (56%) see North Korea’s nuclear program as a critical threat, but this has fallen 9 points since 2017. Similarly, 51% of Australians say international terrorism is a critical threat, up 5 points since 2020, but 22 points below the high point of concern in 2006.
As Australia begins its recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, optimism about the economy has rebounded, and concern about a severe downturn in the global economy has fallen back to 2019 levels. Five in ten Australians (50%) say a severe downturn in the global economy is a critical threat, a 21-point drop since 2020.
Other non-traditional threats elicit lower levels of concern. Views on foreign interference in Australian politics have seesawed since the issue came to prominence in 2017. Concern is on the rise again in 2021, with 49% saying foreign interference in Australian politics poses a critical threat, a 7-point increase from 2020.
ASIO has reported an increase in right-wing extremism activities in Australia in recent years. A minority of Australians (42%) say right-wing extremism is a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests.
The debate over the role of social media companies has been widespread in the past year, including when Facebook shut down its newsfeed in Australia. Four in ten Australians (39%) say the influence of social media companies poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests.
In 2020, Australia’s population shrank for the first time in 100 years, driven by a decline in overseas arrivals due to Covid-19 border closures. But only a fraction of Australians (9%) say a lower rate of immigration into Australia is a critical threat to the country’s vital interests. This finding adds to the complexity of views Australians have expressed about immigration in past Lowy Institute polls. In 2019, for example, 67% said that immigration has a positive impact on Australia’s economy. At the same time, half the population (47%) said that the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year was ‘too high’.
