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Threats to Australia’s vital interests
About the author
Natasha Kassam
Natasha Kassam was Director of the Lowy Institute's Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program from 2019 to 2022, directing the annual Lowy Institute Poll and researching China’s politics, Taiwan, and Australia-China relations.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had a clear impact on threat perceptions for many Australians. Russia’s foreign policy tops the list of threats in 2022, with 68% of Australians saying Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. This marks a striking 36-point increase since 2017 (32%).
At the same time, Australians are also concerned about China and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. More than six in ten Australians (65%) say China’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a 29-point increase from 2017 (36%). Concern about military conflict between the United States and China — the world’s two superpowers — has been on an upward trajectory in Australia. In 2022, 64% of Australians say ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ poses a critical threat, a 12-point increase from 2021 (52%) and 29 points higher than in 2020 (35%).
While anxiety about Russia and China has overtaken many threats, Australians continue to express a high level of concern over other non-traditional security threats. Two-thirds of the population (64%) say ‘cyberattacks from other countries’ pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. A similar number of Australians (62%) say climate change poses a critical threat, steady from last year.
By contrast, Australians’ concern about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ continues on a downward trajectory. In 2022, only 42% say Covid-19 and other potential epidemics pose a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests in the next ten years. This marks a dramatic 17-point fall from 2021 (59%), and is 34 points below the 2020 result (76%) at the outset of the pandemic.
As North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear weapons capabilities, the majority of Australians (58%) consider North Korea’s nuclear program to be a critical threat. A smaller proportion of Australians (48%) view international terrorism as a critical threat.
At a time of record levels of support for democracy, Australians are increasingly concerned about rising authoritarianism. In 2022, a majority (55%) say ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests, a substantial 14-point increase since 2020 (41%). However, concern about ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ has stabilised, with 49% saying foreign interference poses a critical threat.
The Australian public appear to be increasingly concerned about the economy, with 55% saying ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ poses a critical threat to Australia’s interests, which has risen five points since 2021 (50%).
Only a third of Australians (34%) regard ‘political instability in the United States’ as a critical threat. However, a majority (56%) say political instability in Australia’s treaty ally poses ‘an important but not critical’ threat.
