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AUKUS and nuclear-powered submarines
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic began and more than a year after the Australian government removed most public health restrictions, anxiety about ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ continues to fall. Only three in ten (30%) Australians now see the issue as a critical threat. This is a 12-point decrease from 2022, and a dramatic 46-point decrease from the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 (76%).
This year has seen major developments in Australia’s defence policy. On 14 March, just as fieldwork for this Poll commenced, the prime ministers of Australia and the United Kingdom and the president of the United States (AUKUS leaders) met in San Diego to announce the details of their plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. On 24 April, after the vast majority of fieldwork for this poll had been completed, the Australian government released a public version of the Defence Strategic Review, a major report on Australia’s defence posture and structure.
Regarding the AUKUS trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, around half of Australians think it will make Australia (49%) and the region (46%) safer. These opinions remain largely unchanged from last year. Notably, the number of Australians who have not heard of AUKUS or are not sure if it will make Australia or the region safer also did not shift significantly from 2022, despite heavy media coverage of AUKUS during fieldwork for this Poll.
Two-thirds of Australians (67%) are either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of the decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS, a similar result to that in 2022 (70%). However, in 2023, the proportion of Australians who say they ‘strongly’ favour the submarine acquisition dropped by seven points to 26%.
Although the AUKUS submarine program enjoys bipartisan political support in Australia, more Australians who lean towards the Liberal-National Coalition (86%) than those who lean towards the Labor Party (65%) are in favour of acquiring the submarines.1
In April 2023, in a separate survey conducted one month after the San Diego announcement, we asked Australians further questions about the AUKUS submarine program. Australians have mixed feelings about the impact that the nuclear-powered submarines will have on the likelihood of conflict in the region. Three in ten (28%) think the submarines will deter military conflict and help ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region, while two in ten (20%) think they will increase the risk of military conflict and instability. Around half either say the submarines will make no difference (32%) or are not sure of their impact (20%).
In the April survey, we also asked Australians whether they think the estimated cost of the program, widely reported as between $268 billion and $368 billion, is worth paying for the additional capability nuclear-powered submarines provide. Almost half (47%) say they do not think the capability is worth the cost, while one-quarter (27%) say it is worth it. The same number (27%) are not sure.
