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Superpower relations
With competition between the United States and China intensifying, more than half of the Australian public (56%) believe China will be the most important and powerful country in the world in ten years. By contrast, just over one-quarter (27%) think the United States will be the most powerful country.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that US global hegemony was a post-Cold War anomaly, and that the world was moving towards a more multipolar state with ‘multi-great powers in different parts of the planet’.
Regarding other existing or possible emerging great powers, a small minority of Australians (9%) believe Europe will be the most important and powerful region in the world, and very few (5%) think India will predominate.
A central dimension of US–China competition is the contest over innovation, production, and deployment of the most critical advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors.
The United States has long dominated innovation in and production of many advanced technologies and has put in place a range of export controls and measures to impede China’s ability to catch up, including in its manufacture of advanced semiconductor chips. But in January, Chinese artificial intelligence lab DeepSeek stunned markets with an AI model that performed on par with global technology leaders, yet was apparently trained at much lower cost.
Almost six in ten Australians (58%) think that ten years from now, China will be more advanced at developing and using the world’s most important technologies. Only 12% say the same of the United States, while almost three in ten (29%) think China and the United States will be at the same level of technological advancement.
Australia’s relationships with the United States and China are among its most important. The United States is Australia’s main ally and its largest foreign investor, while China is the country’s largest trading partner by some margin. Yet both relationships have been the subject of intense debate in recent years: many are wary of the security threat posed by China’s growing military and technological capabilities, whereas President Trump has made the United States more unpredictable and transactional.
When asked which relationship is more important to Australia, a bare majority continue to prioritise the United States (52%), while a lower proportion prioritise China (43%). Sentiment on this question is largely unchanged from the last time it was asked five years ago, which is notable given the significant geopolitical shifts since 2020. The gap between the superpowers currently stands at nine points in America’s favour, where almost a decade ago they were tied.
On the question of whether Chinese President Xi Jinping or US President Donald Trump is a more reliable partner for Australia, respondents are evenly split (45% each). Almost one in ten (9%) say ‘neither’ or that they don’t know.
