Southeast Asia Influence Index - Key Findings Report

Key findings

• China is everywhere in Southeast Asia: China is a consistent presence across every Southeast Asian country. It is the region’s leading, but not dominant, external partner.
• America’s two faces: The United States is the second-most influential partner for the region, but its influence varies wildly. The Trump administration’s policies will further erode US influence in Southeast Asia.
• Southeast Asia’s collective dynamic: Collectively, Southeast Asian countries are more important to each other than to any external partner. Intra-regional dynamics, especially relations between direct neighbours, often matter more than competition among external powers.
• Japan leads the Indo-Pacific powers: Beyond the United States and China, four Indo-Pacific powers — Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea — exercise influence in Southeast Asia. But only Japan has a multidimensional presence across the entire region.
• Long-distance relationships: Southeast Asia’s next tier of partners from outside the region — Canada, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom — are peripheral players. Yet when focused tightly on geographic or thematic areas of strength, these countries can exert sharp influence.
• Diversification with dependence: No Southeast Asian country is within the uncontested sphere of influence of a single external partner, but several countries are highly exposed to China in specific sectors such as tourism, investment, or trade.