A small states solution to Southeast Asia’s food security stress

ASEAN leaders made a clear statement at their regional summit in Cebu earlier this month – that food security can no longer be separated from fuel security. This reflects growing concern in the region about energy disruptions quickly affecting the value chains for food, compounding challenges already evident in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic amid increasing instances of extreme weather.

ASEAN and its partners had sought to revise their institutional mechanisms as a buffer from significant price shocks following the onset of the Ukraine–Russia war in 2022, which exposed supply chain issues including for fertiliser, energy prices, storage capacity, and shipping routes. During Indonesia’s time as ASEAN chair in 2023, ASEAN leaders adopted the Declaration on Strengthening Food Security and Nutrition in Response to Crises, recognising food supply was increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical conditions.

Markets adjusted, and by 2025, global food prices had stabilised and inflation across Southeast Asia was gradually moderating, mainly due to the gradual adaptation of alternative shipping routes and the readjustment of trade flows. Yet, the conflict with Iran beginning in February 2026 and the consequential spike in global energy prices illustrated the underlying vulnerability persists. ASEAN remains largely dependent on imports from partners beyond the region.

In April, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Singapore, Brunei Darussalam and Malaysia, seeking assurances for the steady supply of fuel, fertilisers and other essential goods. The deals struck offered a measure of relief, but again illustrated that supply chains are dependent on a stable geopolitical environment.

For Southeast Asia, remarks made by Indonesia’s Finance Minister about exploring a possible levy on the Straits of Malacca serve as a reminder that regional resilience should not be taken for granted. Although Jakarta later clarified his remarks, it shows how the shipping lane can become a geopolitical flashpoint when national interests and economic gains overlap.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the energy shock and resulting inflation will hit hardest in emerging market economies. In Southeast Asia, many countries will face a difficult choice: governments will be expected to absorb more of the cost through subsidies or price controls, leaving little room for governments to spend on economic growth.

Australia is a major supplier of commodities to Southeast Asia. Australia exports 44% of its total wheat crop to Southeast Asia. The recent talks with Singapore and Brunei centred on ensuring the essential flows of diesel, LNG and fertilisers, emphasising the two-way benefit of the trade. As a major refinery hub, Singapore accounts for 54.7% of Australia’s petrol imports. Brunei, meanwhile, supplies around 9% of Australia’s diesel imports and 11% of its urea-grade fertilisers.

This highlights that small states can serve as a shock absorber, helping ensure food security resilience. Modern food systems are energy-intensive and highly dependent on a steady supply chain. Urea fertiliser is essential for improved yields.

Although Brunei is a small hydrocarbon economy – amid active debates about diversification and the post-oil transition – it still plays an integral role in ensuring the food supply chain resilience. Brunei Fertiliser Industries currently operates one of the largest plants in Southeast Asia, producing gas-based ammonia and urea, capable of producing 1.365 million tonnes of urea annually.

Emerging fertiliser production cooperation between Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia shows why food security in Southeast Asia can no longer be understood only through the lens of farms, rice stocks or consumer prices. In April 2026, Pupuk Indonesia, PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad and Brunei Fertiliser Industries established the Southeast Asia Fertiliser Association (SEAFA) during the Argus Fertiliser Asia Conference. Although SEAFA is not an ASEAN-led mechanism, it carries considerable political weight in the supply chain. This initiative brings together government-linked companies in a sector tied to national security priorities.

For Brunei, hosting the SEAFA secretariat provides a platform for a small state to exercise its agency in a domain – energy, fertiliser, and food security – that has growing strategic weight across the region. This also supports Brunei’s post-oil economic diversification, extending the Sultanate’s existing energy sector into wider regional value.

For ASEAN, building food security resilience requires countries to look beyond national production targets and stockpiles. In a more disruptive global environment, the small parts are as important as the larger whole.