Screen shots taken from a video released by US President Donald Trump on social media said to show a strike on a vessel in the Caribbean

Conflict creeps into Caribbean calm

Small European territories fear the cost of proximity as tensions boil between Washington and Caracas.

Gabriela Bernal

12 September 20254 min read

While global attention remains fixed on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, a new danger zone is emerging in an unlikely location: the Caribbean. This typically peaceful region has become the setting for US President Donald Trump’s latest foreign policy gambit, which has already triggered a massive surge of American military assets to the southern Caribbean – roughly 4,000 soldiers, seven warships, and a nuclear submarine.

Tensions spiked on 2 September, when Trump ordered a strike on a vessel near Venezuela that killed 11 people. Though unable to provide concrete evidence, the US President justified the attack by claiming those aboard were members of the Venezuelan drug cartel Tren de Aragua. The following day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio escalated further, warning that such attacks “will happen again“. Venezuela has since said none of those killed were cartel members.

Over recent months, Trump has dramatically intensified pressure on Venezuela. Last month, his administration designated President Nicolás Maduro as a terrorist under US law and placed a $50 million bounty on his head. This followed the Treasury Department’s July decision to add Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles to its list of specially designated global terrorist organisations, alleging that the cartel is led by Maduro and other high-ranking officials. Maduro responded by vowing to deploy 4.5 million militia personnel to defend the country’s “seas, our skies and our lands” from any incursions.

The Trump administration shows no signs of backing down. Last week, Trump announced plans to deploy 10 F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico to bolster operations against drug cartels operating in the region. CNN reported unnamed sources last week claiming that strikes within Venezuelan territory remain a possibility.

Mehmet Yaren Bozgun/Anadolu via Getty Images

This surge in violence has sparked alarm among Caribbean islands, particularly those closest to Venezuela. The Dutch island of Curaçao, situated just 65 kilometres from the Venezuelan coast, faces particular vulnerability. For more than a decade, the island has served as a primary destination for Venezuelan refugees fleeing Maduro’s regime, straining local resources and creating significant maritime security challenges.

While Curaçao’s government has urged calm and emphasised the island’s neutral status, officials acknowledge the growing risk of being drawn into a US-Venezuela conflict. Under existing US-Netherlands agreements, American forces can use Curaçao’s airport and airspace for drug trafficking surveillance – but only with unarmed aircraft. The Dutch Ministry of Defence has admitted it lacks detailed information about current US operations, stating only that it is “monitoring the situation closely”.

The Caribbean’s small island nations and territories now find themselves uncomfortably positioned at the intersection of US-Venezuela hostilities and broader great power rivalry.

Dutch policymakers are increasingly wrestling with stretched military resources as they attempt to fulfil NATO obligations in Ukraine while safeguarding national security and economic interests in faraway places like the Caribbean and the Indo-Pacific. Still, recognising the deteriorating security environment, the Netherlands pledged €24 million (AU$42 million) in 2024 to strengthen Caribbean defences: €12 million for militia enhancement and another €12 million for air warning and defence systems, including portable anti-aircraft missiles.

The Hague’s attention has increasingly been pulled toward the Caribbean, even before Trump’s strike. Maritime security challenges have intensified not only due to Venezuelan refugees seeking asylum on Dutch Caribbean islands, but also following the detention in June of a Dutch captain and his multinational crew by Venezuelan authorities on espionage charges. With no news of the captain in two months, mounting diplomatic tensions are making it increasingly difficult for the Netherlands to neglect the rapidly worsening security situation threatening its islands.

This is particularly the case due to the complex geopolitical dynamics facing the region. In reality, US motivations extend far beyond targeting drug cartels. Maduro’s regime enjoys backing from both Beijing and Moscow – two of America’s primary adversaries. For years, China and Russia have sought to expand their influence in America’s backyard through oil deals and various kinds of economic projects. This directly challenges America’s position in the region, risking a loss of influence that could have a range of negative long-term repercussions for US interests.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has a $50 million bounty on his head (Bolivarian Republic Of Venezuela Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Russia’s Foreign Ministry quickly condemned Trump’s strike last week, declaring that the “situation is threatening regional and global security”. While Beijing has yet to comment on the situation, earlier this year, China’s President Xi Jinping did express his firm support “in safeguarding sovereignty, national dignity and social stability” in Venezuela.

Venezuela has the potential to become fertile ground for great power competition, with potentially severe spillover effects for surrounding Caribbean islands. The situation grows more precarious given Europe’s concentration of military resources on Ukraine. Unlike their continental counterparts, Dutch, French and British Caribbean territories are not covered by NATO security guarantees in the event of conflict, making the potential consequences of conflict in the region even more dire for these islands.

While full-scale war in the Caribbean remains unlikely in the near term, the probability of increased tensions and regional instability – driven by Trump’s aggressive posture, Maduro’s fixation on remaining in power, and Europe’s distracted focus – appears increasingly high. The Caribbean’s small island nations and territories now find themselves uncomfortably positioned at the intersection of US-Venezuela hostilities and broader great power rivalry, with limited ability to influence events that could fundamentally reshape their region’s security landscape.

About the author

Gabriela Bernal

Dr Gabriela Bernal is a Korean affairs analyst based in Seoul, South Korea, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies.

Topics

The Americas