Migration & refugees, explained.
Migrants gather along the fence on the Morocco-Spain border of Spain's north African Ceuta enclave on 31 July 2026 (Abdel Majid Bziouat/AFP via Getty Images)
The migrant surge hits just as France, Spain, Poland, Germany and Italy prepare to head to the polls in the coming year.
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Europe’s far right cashes in on the Ceuta crossingsEurope’s far right cashes in on the Ceuta crossings
The horse has bolted, Europe is scrambling to shut the stable door. Spain is in the doghouse, fingers are pointing at Moroccan mischief (Opens in new window), while Europe’s far-right is making hay.
That’s the long story short after some 50,000 Moroccan migrants surged into Ceuta, the little-known Spanish enclave in North Africa, before being quickly booted out again. Authorities have erected a 500-metre-long sea barrier (Opens in new window) to prevent further mass crossings.
The incident is set to cast a long shadow over European elections in 2027.
France has a presidential poll in April, Spain’s next election is due before August, Poland is expected to vote around October, and the Italians before December or possibly as soon as April (Opens in new window). There are also a handful of state elections in Germany in April and May.
It’s too early to see the fallout of the Ceuta stampede reflected in political polling aggregated by Politico (Opens in new window). But Europe’s far-right know the optics of chaos are a gift.
European leaders facing re-election understand their political survival depends on tough-on-border-security policies. The continent is still reeling from the 2015 European migrant crisis that saw an influx of a million asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq (Opens in new window).
Twenty-two EU leaders signed a letter (Opens in new window) demanding action after the Ceuta migrant surge. EU solidarity was cast aside and the Spanish government dressed down (Opens in new window) for allegedly creating pull factors with a perceived laissez-faire attitude to migration.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who faces a challenge from former Italian army general Roberto Vannacci and his new far-right party Futuro Nazionale, is leading the charge on Ceuta. Meloni swiftly suspended passport-free travel under Schengen with Spain (Opens in new window), promising to heavily screen third-country nationals arriving from the kingdom. It’s a bit of huffing and puffing from Meloni; identity checks are already required to get from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland.
Vannacci has been on a Ceuta posting frenzy on social media. “The only solution is the Australian model: if you enter Europe illegally, you will never have a chance to (stay here legally),” Vannacci wrote on Instagram (Opens in new window).
A far-right rally in Ceuta following the migrant surge to the Spanish enclave (Ivan Zambrano/Europa Press via Getty Images)
In Paris, Élysée Palace contenders will gather on 27 August at Roland-Garros for the first French presidential candidates' TV debate. No doubt the strongly polling (Opens in new window) far-right leader Marine Le Pen will use the debate to try to capitalise on Ceuta and deflect attention from a recent pesky saga – being found guilty of misusing EU funds (Opens in new window). Le Pen has already flagged curbing Schengen. “In 2027, we will stop this madness by reserving Schengen free movement for EU nationals,” she wrote on Facebook. (Opens in new window)
Meanwhile, the Ceuta surge could be the political death knell for Spain’s hitherto Teflon Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He’s been weathering a political storm over his brother (Opens in new window) and wife (Opens in new window) facing corruption allegations. His coalition government is fragile and is losing control of the political narrative.
Spain’s conservative People's Party and the far-right party Vox do not have the numbers in parliament to oust Sánchez through a no-confidence motion, but both party leaders hightailed it to Ceuta to roast their rival.
“Ceuta is an invasion and an act of war,” Vox leader Santiago Abascal told reporters (Opens in new window).
Vox is advancing and performed strongly in four recent regional elections and could be a kingmaker at the next election (Opens in new window).
Governments seeking border order must also recognise the algorithm’s role in the chaos.
In Poland, the biggest right-wing opposition party has recently imploded over a bitter power struggle with a former prime minister (Opens in new window), so Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk may not be as nervous as other European incumbents. Some MPs in his ruling coalition even filmed themselves eating popcorn while watching their rivals’ soap opera antics (Opens in new window).
Nevertheless, Tusk has weighed in on Ceuta, insisting that if Schengen is to survive, Spain has got to take a leaf out of Poland’s approach and beef up border security (Opens in new window).
In Germany, where four state elections are scheduled across April and May, far-right Alternative for Germany co-leader Alice Weidel made false claims to her followers that the Moroccan migrants would be heading to Germany (Opens in new window).
Morocco has blamed the migrant surge on social media disinformation, human trafficking gangs (Opens in new window) as well as a misunderstood Spanish court ruling banning returns of migrants who were intercepted at sea.
When EU interior ministers have an emergency video hook-up on Tuesday, no doubt the focus will be on ramping up physical border patrols and barriers.
But governments seeking border order must also recognise the algorithm’s role in the chaos.
Last year, US President Donald Trump terminated hundreds of millions in US aid money supporting independent media in undemocratic parts of the world (Opens in new window). This move represented at least 35% of the global media development budget and saw newsrooms shed staff and media outlets shuttered.
If Europe fails to step up and re-invest in “information integrity” measures such as good journalism, factcheckers, pre-bunkers, debunkers and school media literacy programs combating the tide of disinformation in parts of Africa, further tragedies like the 88 deaths from the Ceuta surge (Opens in new window) will be inevitable.
About the author
Lisa Martin
Lisa Martin is an Australian journalist based in Copenhagen. She is a four-time Walkley Award finalist.
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