The European Union’s existing strategy toward North Korea – centred on sanctions, pressure, and harsh rhetoric – has proven largely ineffective and requires fundamental revision. Decades of sanctions have failed to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs, while condemnations of North Korea’s human rights situation, however justified, have done little to modify the regime’s behaviour or protect European interests.
What Europe needs instead is an approach developed in close coordination with Washington and Seoul, aimed at providing North Korea with compelling reasons to recalibrate its foreign policy priorities.
Kim Jong-un’s efforts to elevate and present North Korea as a “normal” state suggest that the North Korean leader seeks to transform his country’s long-held image as isolated and weak. This desire could present an opening for diplomacy. Rather than offering more sanctions – further pushing Pyongyang closer to Moscow – Europe should explore avenues that could lead North Korea to reduce its dependence on Russia and consider the potential benefits of improved relations with the West. In particular, supporting any resumption of US-North Korean diplomacy should become a European priority, as progress on that front would naturally reduce Pyongyang’s reliance on Moscow.
At the same time, Europe must acknowledge important limitations to this approach. The EU cannot successfully engage North Korea in isolation – any meaningful diplomatic initiative must operate in tandem with American efforts. Pyongyang has little interest in European engagement pursued for its own sake without tangible benefits. However, if the EU can demonstrate its capacity to facilitate or promote US-North Korea diplomacy, North Korea might gradually adopt a less antagonistic stance toward Europe.
To this end, the EU would benefit from strengthening diplomatic cooperation with South Korea and taking the Unification Minister up on his recent offer of appointing an envoy. A joint EU-South Korean push for the resumption of US-North Korean diplomacy could result in an improved security environment both on the peninsula and in Europe. The costs of continuing down the current path are high, likely resulting in deeper cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow, and a potentially expanded North Korean military presence in Europe.
European and Indo-Pacific security are now inseparably linked and the EU must now develop diplomatic mechanisms to engage meaningfully in a region that can no longer be treated as peripheral to its security. Getting Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with US President Donald Trump would be a wise place to start.