Exit, pursued by voters

After winning an election last month, the new Chief Minister of India’s State of Tamil Nadu, Vijay, tried to appoint his astrologer to a government position as “Officer on Special Duty”. That is surely not as heinous an over-reach as Caligula’s appointing his horse a Consul. Unlike a horse, an astrologer could at least pretend to introduce forethought and planning in government schemes.

One day Vijay’s astrologer may need to predict his boss’ political demise. Nonetheless, his example should live on, since the story contains a germ of wisdom for other political leaders. Those fretting about their longevity might benefit from some astrological, mystical or literary guidance about the timing and form of their exit. Unfortunately, there are no witches on the heath to guide a modern leader.

Keir Starmer is one obvious case, Emmanuel Macron another. Even leaders who fancy their chances might do well to consider a few home truths about less-than-happy endings.

No leader survives a challenge undiminished. Few emerge undefeated. Margaret Thatcher proves that rule, as do four recent Australian prime ministers. Similarly, in the past few years, three British PMs have jumped as they were being pushed. As one Australian prime minister wryly reminded his counterparts: “if you don’t feel the tap on the shoulder, you get the tap on the head”.

First and foremost, leaders in trouble need to admit that the Book of Ecclesiastes had a point. “The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong.” We should not misunderstand Ecclesiastes; its counsel recommends neither fatalism nor despondency but rather grace under pressure. Leaving on your own terms in your own time is surely a form of grace. Winston Churchill must have regretted not packing up straight after his indispensable war service rather than being trounced in a general election.

Second, leaders should remember how lucky they have been and retain a sense of humour. After losing the 2008 presidential election, John McCain confided that he was sleeping like a baby – waking up every two hours crying. Unlike many others failing to win high office, McCain did not appear to waste time railing about the 24/7 news cycle, intractable dilemmas or the (so-called) increasing difficulty of governing anywhere. Leaders might also imagine the future by writing themselves a farewell address, whether inspirational (Ronald Reagan’s city on a hill), admonitory (Dwight Eisenhower’s warning about the military-industrial complex) or revealing (Charles de Gaulle’s scorn for those who had rejected him).

Blaming the electorate is a worse, indeed a cardinal, error. If voters are tempted by Alice Weidel (in Germany), Marine Le Pen (France) or Nigel Farage (Britain), then there is something chronically wrong in the country, something which a good leader occupying centre ground should be determined to fix. Hungary will test whether populist damage to the system can be rectified. Sadly, Joe Biden could not do so. Nor have Starmer and Macron.

Third, try to acknowledge that the governance of any country, great or small, is not all about the leader. Getting to that point might mean a leader abandoning for a while some of the props of daily routine: living in a bubble; listening to acolytes; assuming the people still love you; harping on about the mandate given at the last election. The French commend immersion in a bain de foule (“bath of the crowd”), escaping the government cocoon to talk on equal terms to ordinary voters.

Outside artfully curated election events, and bearing in mind security constraints, few leaders can now take that bath. Their judgment is impaired accordingly. Angela Merkel kept her life outside the spotlight private and intact. A bit of shopping and a spell cooking probably enhanced the governance of Germany.

Fourth, set aside some time to think – or even to ponder, reflect and ruminate. Books are reliably helpful. So too are long, quiet walks. To plagiarise a flawed Shakespearian hero, “there is a world elsewhere”.

Fifth, think about something else to do. Get a life, or at least a mental go-bag. Herbert Hoover pursued a most distinguished career either side of a failed presidency. Jimmy Carter re-invented himself as carpenter, activist and scribe. Churchill and de Gaulle wrote exceptional histories. Cincinnatus went back to his plough. Nelson Mandela handed over power with his standing and successes still unalloyed.

Sixth, if all else fails, call up clips of François Mitterrand’s 1981 campaign for the French presidency. Stagecraft and artifice depicted him on posters as a rugged-up child of the countryside, embedded in the land among emblems of France – however anachronistic or illusory – voters still cherish. Mitterrand was meant to embody la force tranquille. Voters will always respond to quiet, calm, self-assured strength. They know what they need and what qualities a leader should have. La force tranquille remains in fashion, but who other than Volodymyr Zelenskyy can carry that off today? It is not too late for others to grow into that role.