Indonesia, explained.
Villagers walk along a flooded road due to land loss from climate change in Demak, Central Java, 30 July 2025 (Bay Ismoyo/AFP via Getty Images)
Jakarta is playing a balancing act between business wins and climate objectives. Can it work?
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Indonesia’s green industrial policy ahead of COP30Indonesia’s green industrial policy ahead of COP30
As the world prepares to convene for COP30 in Brazil this November, Indonesia finds itself at the familiar crossroads of climate ambition and economic opportunity. This year, the Indonesian government is showcasing a bold “Green Industrial Policy”, designed to demonstrate the country’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously attracting investment. But questions remain about the effectiveness and clarity of the projects Indonesia is bringing to the table.
According to the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLH), Indonesia will present 14 emission-reduction projects as part of its climate portfolio at COP30, collectively aiming to save 4.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) from entering the atmosphere. These initiatives, some transitioning from the old Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, are now being aligned with the new Paris Agreement mechanisms under Article 6.4. The government frames these projects not just as environmental action but as economic assets – a way to leverage the potential of Indonesia’s carbon market for international partnerships and investment.
Observers of Indonesia’s past COP campaigns note a recurring pattern: the projects presented often lack transparency, clear timelines, or detailed implementation strategies.
Indonesia’s strategy is emblematic of a broader global trend: nations increasingly view climate commitments as opportunities for business deals. COP conferences, historically forums for negotiations, have evolved into stages where governments and corporations simultaneously pursue climate and commercial objectives. In this context, Indonesia’s Green Industrial Policy serves a dual purpose: signalling climate leadership while enticing investors to fund domestic green projects.
Yet observers of Indonesia’s past COP campaigns note a recurring pattern: the projects presented often lack transparency, clear timelines, or detailed implementation strategies. While the headline numbers – millions of tons of CO2e reduced – sound impressive, they sometimes mask uncertainties about actual impact, financing, and feasibility. Deputy for Climate Change Control Ary Sudijanto of the KLH/BPLH acknowledged that mitigation and adaptation efforts still face funding gaps, with promised international support frequently unfulfilled.
COP29 was held in Azerbaijan. This year's conference is scheduled for November in Brazil (Dean Calma/IAEA/Flickr)
This tension between ambition and execution highlights a critical lesson for Indonesia as it heads to COP30. Climate diplomacy is increasingly measured not only in pledges but in credible pathways to achieve them. A Green Industrial Policy, if it is to be more than a marketing tool, requires clarity in project design, robust monitoring mechanisms, and genuine partnerships with both domestic stakeholders and the international community. Without these, even the most innovative projects risk being dismissed as aspirational rather than actionable.
Indonesia does have reasons for cautious optimism. The country has a track record of 17 greenhouse gas reduction projects previously implemented under the Clean Development Mechanism, which are now being transitioned to comply with Paris Agreement standards. This institutional experience gives Jakarta a foundation to scale up mitigation projects and attract investment in sectors ranging from renewable energy to sustainable forestry. Moreover, Indonesia’s vast natural resources and growing industrial base present opportunities for a genuinely green industrial transition, if paired with strong governance and enforcement mechanisms.
As COP30 approaches, Indonesia has a unique chance to model how emerging economies can align industrial policy with climate commitments.
But the stakes are high. As global scrutiny intensifies ahead of COP30, Indonesia’s Green Industrial Policy will be judged not just by the promises it makes but by the clarity and credibility of its execution. Investors, international partners, and civil society alike are increasingly wary of climate pledges that double as business opportunities without measurable impact. Indonesia’s challenge is to ensure that the Green Industrial Policy is more than a showcase – it must be a vehicle for both sustainable development and genuine emissions reductions.
In practice, this means creating a policy environment where projects are transparent, financeable, and monitored rigorously. Mechanisms for tracking carbon credits, verifying emission reductions, and ensuring local community benefits are essential to prevent greenwashing and to deliver on the promises made at international forums. It also requires a candid conversation with global partners about the financing gap that continues to constrain climate action.
As COP30 approaches, Indonesia has a unique chance to model how emerging economies can align industrial policy with climate commitments. Done right, the Green Industrial Policy could be a blueprint for balancing economic growth with environmental stewardship. Done poorly, it risks repeating a familiar pattern of ambitious announcements without meaningful follow-through.
In the end, the measure of success will not be the number of projects on display or the megatons of CO2e claimed. It will be whether Indonesia can translate these commitments into tangible emissions reductions, sustainable economic opportunities, and credible leadership on the global climate stage. COP30 offers the spotlight – but it is the post-COP action that will truly define Indonesia’s climate legacy.
About the authors
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank.
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat Director of China-Indonesia Desk at Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) in Jakarta.
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