New Caledonia: Plus ça change

The outcome (Opens in new window) of New Caledonia’s overdue provincial elections at the weekend – the first in seven years – suggests that the much-debated issue of France’s slight broadening of voter eligibility has had little effect. The result largely replicates that of 2019: of the 54 seats, independence parties remain the largest grouping with 26 (same as 2019), parties advocating staying with France dropped slightly to 24 from 25, and the small non-aligned Polynesian-based Eveil Océanien (EO) increased its representation to four from three.

The long political impasse in the French Pacific territory looks set to continue.

The 28 June provincial elections determine the political balance in New Caledonia’s three provinces and Congress. After two years of delay, despite calls from the independence side for new elections to legitimise those negotiating for New Caledonia’s future, France has only held these elections now because its Constitutional Council ruled that they could not be put off any longer.

France had postponed the local elections three times as it unsuccessfully sought a political solution for New Caledonia’s future. In the end holding the elections became imperative in order to address the political status of the territory, whether to remain as part of France or pursue independence.

A controversial independence referendum in 2021, boycotted and rejected by indigenous independence supporters, followed by France’s effort to impose voter eligibility changes weakening the impact of the indigenous voter, led to violence in 2024 and deepened economic stagnation.

On the eve of the election, Macron’s government rushed through legislation (Opens in new window) broadening some voter eligibility, over independence party objections, although parliament did not endorse his full proposal.

In the presence of 2,400 French security personnel, the campaign and election proceeded relatively peacefully. The only notable incidents were a fire at a polling booth (Opens in new window) on Ile des Pins two nights before the vote, and the sawing down and theft of 37 telecommunications poles (Opens in new window) in a Kanak area.

The lower turnout than usual (63.71% compared to 66.49% in 2019), and the proliferation of new lists with candidates professing to present an alternative to the two main blocks – none successful in securing seats – suggest some voter fatigue.

Still, polarisation between the two principal groupings has deepened. All 24 seats on the “stay with France” side go to the hard-right Loyaliste/Rassemblement coalition, a moderate loyalist party having fallen by the wayside. Of the 26 independence seats, the hardline Union Calédonienne–Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (UC-FLNKS) consolidated its position to 16 (15 in 2019), a longstanding Loyalty Island independence group won three (up from one) while the more accommodating Nationale pour l’Indépendance–Palika (UNI-Palika) returned seven (nine in 2019).

The outcome has a direct bearing on negotiations about New Caledonia’s future. While the political weight of pro-France and independence blocks remains roughly equal, their positions are more polarised, suggesting little change to the current impasse. The EO’s kingmaker role remains decisive within the Congress, but less so for broader governance discussions.

What has changed is leadership.On the “stay with France” side, the hardline, less compromising Loyalist/Rassemblement leader Sonia Backès is more firmly at the helm than ever. On the independence side, underpinned by Kanak Pacific islander culture, leadership has always been more diffuse. This time round, the UC-FLNKS specifically ran on a “renewal” platform, putting young candidates at the top of their lists to displace older leaders. Longtime leaders and negotiators like Rock Wamytan and Daniel Goa have left the scene, giving way to new leaders Johanito Wamytan, Pascal Sawa and Mickael Forrest. Within Kanak culture, elders will always have a respected say.

This renewed leadership does introduce an unknown quantity for discussions about the future. Johanito Wamytan said during the campaign (Opens in new window) that his party would participate in future discussions.

France has foreshadowed the immediate resumption of discussions about the future (Opens in new window) after these elections. One consideration for independence parties will be French presidential elections due in April 2027. Macron cannot run for a third term, his successor within his centrist party is unknown, and the major political pressure comes from the hard-right Marine Le Pen who has said New Caledonia will remain French. Although concerns remain deep (Opens in new window), the refreshed independence leadership may choose more concerted negotiation with the existing French administration before those elections.