Pacific Islands, explained.
The sun over water off Nuku’alofa, Tonga (Jens Büttner/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Pacific Island nations are already building the answer to fuel-import dependence, with the Hormuz crisis making the case for scale.
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The Pacific’s fuel problem has a solution – and the sun is shiningThe Pacific’s fuel problem has a solution – and the sun is shining
When conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026, the economic consequences did not arrived in the Pacific overnight. But they did arrive within weeks. Kerosene prices rose 42%. Diesel climbed 35%.
For governments already carrying rising debt burdens, with average debt servicing costs that often exceed 40% of government revenue, the arithmetic was brutal: fuel imports consuming up to a quarter of national income, foreign reserves declining, and no short-term path to relief.
Unlike larger economies, Pacific Island governments cannot print money, cannot absorb repeated import shocks on thin fiscal buffers, and cannot wait for global oil markets to stabilise. The Middle East may be thousands of kilometres away, but the damage has been almost immediate, and hyper-local.
This is not a new vulnerability. It is a structural one, and the Pacific has already begun building the answer. Research by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the University of New South Wales, published in 2025, documented what community-centred renewable energy transitions look like when they work: locally owned, locally maintained, and deliberately designed to sever the connection between Pacific households and the geopolitical shocks that have always determined whether their lights stay on.
The question that the pre-COP meeting in Fiji and Tuvalu this October must now answer is whether the finance exists to scale that answer before the next crisis makes it unavoidable.
In an era defined by volatility, the smartest economic decision may not be securing more fuel – but needing less of it.
The answer is already being built. Renewable energy deployment is accelerating rapidly, with approximately 85% of new power generation globally coming from renewables in 2025. The International Renewable Energy Agency has noted consistent declines in the cost of renewable technologies. In remote Pacific Island communities, small-scale solar systems are beginning to change the economics of everyday life.
In Fiji, solar mini-grids are being implemented through the Fiji Rural Electrification Fund (FREF) project, led by the Government of Fiji with support from UNDP. The model combines public finance with private sector delivery to extend reliable electricity to remote communities. Where diesel generators once dictated limited hours of expensive, unreliable power, communities are starting to access 24-hour electricity generated locally from the sun.
For households, this means cheaper and more consistent energy over time – in Fiji, solar generation costs are around eight times lower than current grid electricity tariffs. For local businesses, it also enables longer operating hours, refrigeration, and new productive uses of energy. And for governments, it reduces exposure to fluctuating fuel import bills that can strain national budgets. This approach aligns with the Pacific’s ambition to be the first region in the world to be 100% powered by renewables.
A solar mini-grid in Fiji (FREF Gallery)
Seen through this lens, the case for solar mini-grids is not only environmental – it is economic. Diesel prices are volatile, and freight costs to remote islands add to already high fuel prices – with fuel imports costing between 10–25% of GDP in some Pacific nations. Supply is equally precarious, dependent on shipments that can be delayed by weather, port capacity, or – as recent Middle East conflict has shown – global disruptions. Solar, by contrast, carries near-zero fuel costs once installed, generates power daily without waiting for the next supply ship, and shields communities from the geopolitical shocks that routinely ripple through global oil markets. Following upfront investment, replacing diesel generators with solar PV and batteries would save the Pacific well over US$400 million annually.
This fundamentally changes the cost equation. For governments managing constrained budgets and rising fuel import bills, this suggests a shift in how value is assessed – not only in terms of upfront cost, but long-term system performance and risk. What was once seen as a costly alternative is now the lowest-cost option.
The Pacific’s experience offers an opportunity to reframe the energy conversation as global leaders meet in Fiji and Tuvalu for pre-COP31 dialogue in early October. Climate finance will rightly be a central focus, but beyond financing gaps, there is an opportunity to highlight the economic gains and fiscal resilience possible through a transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy for households, business and governments.
The FREF model demonstrates that, with the right upfront investment and strong public-private partnerships, this transition is not only viable but increasingly represents sound economic policy. This model is ready to be scaled across other Pacific Island countries, including Tuvalu and Marshall Islands, which face acute energy challenges, and Solomon Islands, which has one of the highest energy tariff rates globally with consumers paying up to 19 times more than the cost of solar power. The FREF model could be applied to other countries beyond the region.
In an era defined by volatility, Pacific nations are have shown that the smartest economic decision may not be securing more fuel – but needing less of it.
About the authors
Aquila Van Keuk
Aquila Van Keuk is a Policy, Innovation and Partnerships Analyst with the UNDP Pacific Office in Fiji, working on climate policy, energy transition, and community resilience across the Pacific.
Deepak Chand
Deepak Chand is the Acting Director of Energy at Fiji’s Department of Energy, responsible for national energy policy, planning, and implementation of government commitments including Fiji’s NDC 3.
Paul Munro
Paul Munro is a Scientia Associate Professor in Human Geography at the University of New South Wales Sydney, researching the political implications of environmental, energy and technology transitions.
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