Climate & environment, explained.
Europe is betting its future on the idea that green energy is the ultimate form of hard power (Doug/Flickr)
Brussels is turning climate policy into industrial strategy, hoping to step beyond populist anger over costs.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Rebranding Europe’s energy transition from climate policy to survivalRebranding Europe’s energy transition from climate policy to survival
For the better part of a decade, Europe’s energy policy was a subset of its moral identity. The Green Deal was the continent’s secular religion, a vision of a post-carbon future that would lead the world by example. But as we move into February 2026, a cold realism has settled over the continent. The “greenlash” – that potent mix of farmer protests, industrial anxiety, and voter fatigue over rising costs – has finally forced a fundamental mutation in how the European Union views its pipes and wires.
The shift is not a retreat from decarbonisation, but a profound rebranding of it. The European Commission’s 2026 work program, aptly titled Europe’s Independence Moment, makes the new consensus clear: the climate transition is no longer just about saving the planet but the military and strategic survival of the state. By reframing the transition as “Energy Sovereignty” rather than “Environmental Stewardship,” European leaders are attempting to outmanoeuvre the populist anger that nearly derailed the project. As Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted upon flagging the program in September, this is the moment for Europe to “take control over the technologies and energy sources that will power our economies.”
But a fortress is only effective if its occupants can afford to live within its walls.
This is a classic pivot. When a policy faces a domestic dead-end, you elevate it to the level of national security. In 2025, wind and solar finally reached a milestone, with renewables providing nearly half of EU electricity, surpassing fossil fuels for the first time. Yet, the price of gas remains the Achilles’ heel of European industry. The new 2026 mandates – including an Energy Security Package scheduled for this quarter – are not just ecological markers. They are fortifications. The goal is to correct the “economic absurdity” where gas prices still favour fossil fuels over electricity, a gap that must be closed to ensure industrial leadership.
Central to this fortification is the newly proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, which moves beyond mere carbon targets to mandate “made in Europe” quotas for critical energy infrastructure. By streamlining permits to weeks rather than years, Brussels is attempting to build a “Clean Industrial Deal” that functions as a shield against both Chinese dominance and American protectionism.
This urgency is not academic. With the 2027 “Super-Election Year” looming in Paris and Berlin, the Commission knows that unless “Energy Sovereignty” translates into lower industrial bills and preserved manufacturing jobs, the populist greenlash will become a permanent political winter.
Ursula von der Leyen: a moment for Europe to “take control over the technologies and energy sources that will power our economies.” (CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2025)
The challenge for Europe now is whether this “independence” is affordable. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered its definitive regime last month, is a bold experiment in geoeconomics. It tells the world that the Single Market is no longer an open field, but a club with a high entry fee. If Europe can successfully marry its industrial survival to its carbon targets, it will create a new model for the 21st century. If it fails, it will find itself a high-cost museum in a world of low-cost competitors.
This tension is at the heart of the current negotiations for the 2028–34 Multiannual Financial Framework. The proposed €2 trillion budget is not merely a ledger of spending but a strategic blueprint that treats the energy grid like a missile defence shield. The Commission is proposing a fivefold increase in funding for defence and security, with energy resilience serving as the foundational layer. This is the new “geoeconomics”: a world where a country’s carbon footprint is as relevant to its power as its carrier groups.
However, the “greenlash” remains a potent political reality. To sustain this transition, the EU must manage the internal friction of “energy sovereignty” by addressing the affordability crisis that fuels populism. The Affordable Energy Action Plan is a start, but it requires more than just subsidies. It will take a radical streamlining of the Single Market for energy. Brussels must move faster on the Electrification Strategy to ensure that the “clean” choice is also the cheapest choice for a factory in Poland or a household in France.
Ultimately, Europe is betting its future on the idea that green energy is the ultimate form of hard power. By doubling down on homegrown renewables and batteries, and by enforcing the CBAM to protect its internal industry from “carbon leakage,” the EU is building a fortress. But a fortress is only effective if its occupants can afford to live within its walls. The success of the “Independence Moment” will not be measured by the number of solar panels installed, but by whether the average European citizen sees their energy bill as a badge of security rather than a burden of ideology.
In this new era, the “rules-based order” is being replaced by a “resilience-based order.” Europe’s task is to ensure it is the architect of that new system, rather than just its first casualty.
About the author
Imran Khalid
Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and columnist on international affairs.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
