China, explained.
Donald Trump's social media posts on Wednesday about India (Daniel Torok/White House Photo)
The direction of US-India relations had long been upwards – but suddenly there is a jolt.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Trump’s 25% India tariffs could backfire and strengthen China-India tiesTrump’s 25% India tariffs could backfire and strengthen China-India ties
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, citing high trade barriers and India’s continued defence and energy ties with Russia, marks a significant departure from the trajectory of US-India relations.
In a post on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, Trump harshly criticised India’s economic policies and strategic alignments. More than a simple trade dispute, Trump’s comments underscore a growing rift that may nudge New Delhi toward closer engagement with Beijing, despite their history of border tensions and strategic rivalry.
From the George W. Bush administration through to Joe Biden’s, India enjoyed a uniquely privileged position in US foreign policy. Successive administrations viewed India as a crucial partner capable of balancing China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific. The civil nuclear agreement, defence cooperation frameworks, and deepening economic linkages reflected Washington’s long-term strategic investment in India. The underlying vision was clear: elevate India as a regional counterweight to China’s growing assertiveness.
India, though traditionally wedded to the doctrine of strategic autonomy, embraced these overtures with cautious pragmatism. Aware of its limitations in confronting China independently, New Delhi expanded defence cooperation with Washington and its allies, conducting joint military exercises and engaging in strategic dialogues. The relationship was not without obstacles, but collaboration was ever growing.
Trump’s approach is a jolt. His transactional approach, unpredictability, and now the imposition of tariffs has undermined the trust that underpinned bilateral ties. His public criticism of India’s foreign policy choices threatens to reinforce perceptions of American unreliability.
Trump has shown a pattern of disregard for India’s core sensitivities.
India appears to be recalibrating its regional posture. In recent months, a flurry of high-level diplomatic engagements with China suggests a shift in tone. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar have all visited Beijing. While Jaishankar previously asserted that normalisation of ties between India and China depended on the restoration of the pre-2020 border status, his more recent statements have emphasised the potential for positive engagement. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also planning a visit to China in September, signalling a willingness to stabilize the relationship.
This outreach is unfolding even as China continues to support Pakistan. During the May 2025 India-Pakistan military conflict, China reportedly shared military intelligence with Islamabad. Yet New Delhi chose to direct its condemnation solely at Islamabad, notably avoiding any criticism of Beijing. On the border dispute, despite an agreement last year to restore the status quo, China has not fully implemented the terms and remains reluctant to de-escalate. Additionally, China’s unilateral renaming of locations in Arunachal Pradesh received only a mild diplomatic response from New Delhi. When Beijing issued a warning over an Indian minister’s attendance at the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday celebration, India’s reply was measured, emphasising its non-interference in matters of faith and religion.
Trump has also shown a pattern of disregard for India’s core sensitivities. He repeatedly claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, despite New Delhi issuing mild rebuttals. He offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute – an issue where India has long maintained that no external party should intervene. India considers Kashmir an internal matter, and any suggestion of third-party involvement directly challenges its sovereignty and longstanding diplomatic position. Furthermore, Trump hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir – a move that raised concerns in New Delhi, given the Indian government’s deep unease over the political influence of Pakistan’s military establishment. In his Truth Social posts this week, Trump talked up the prospect of US-Pakistan business ties.
These developments suggest that India is adopting a more pragmatic and flexible strategy toward China – and it appears to be in response to Trump. Instead of letting tensions spiral, New Delhi is prioritising diplomatic engagement and regional stability. Ironically, it is Trump’s “America First” posture that appears to be accelerating this adjustment. For India, the lesson is clear: countering China alone is not only unsustainable but increasingly risky in the face of an unpredictable and unreliable United States.
About the author
Saira Bano
Saira Bano is an Assistant Professor of Politics at Thompson Rivers University, British Columbia, Canada.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
