Pacific Islands, explained.
Pacific nations could turn their back on a United States that doesn't take climate change seriously (Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images)
So much for the solemn declarations of “family”.
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Trump’s climate retreat will cost America influence in the PacificTrump’s climate retreat will cost America influence in the Pacific
Donald Trump’s loud promises to “drill, baby, drill” and a suggested exit from the Paris Climate Accords will hamstring US efforts to be seen as a genuine partner in and of the Pacific.
Trump’s emphatic win in the American election had a strong climate mandate. That is, to pull out of the Paris Agreement, a possible withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a halt to offshore-wind projects on “Day 1” and a repeal of the Biden administration’s successful Inflation Reduction Act, which has seen billions of dollars in tax credits flow to clean energy technologies, electric vehicle incentives and carbon reduction initiatives.
Trump’s dramatic shift in direction on climate policy comes at a time when America seeks to position itself as a “Pacific Nation”, with an ambition to contest a growing and assertive China. Following the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” in 2012, America has strained to classify itself as a “Pacific nation”, calling on a sense of shared history and identity that stems from sacrifice in the Second World War, its island state Hawaii and its territories of Guam, American Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands.
The aim of this narrative is to naturalise the US presence in the region, have partner countries be receptive to its proposals as a trusted local player, and thereby entrench its strategic and security interests. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative is one example, which has seen stronger military cooperation in Papua New Guinea and Fiji, the expansion of airfields in Guam, and the building of radar capabilities in Palau.
The Pacific region has loudly and repeatedly cited climate change as its biggest security threat.
The American narrative has become most animated under the Biden administration, which has spoken affectionately about the regional partnership, stressing America’s “profound and enduring ties with each other, as one Pacific family”. The administration has also pined that “the history and the future of the Pacific Islands and the United States are inextricably linked”, and a first-of-its-kind US Pacific Partnership Strategy supposedly reflects a sentiment of a secure presence in the region.
Such engagement looks set to continue under the incoming administration. The Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank known for Project 2025, has produced a report outlining a “comprehensive, national strategy for US engagement in the Pacific”. The report recognises that “great power competition … requires elevating the Pacific Islands to a higher level of importance” within US foreign policy.
Trump’s election, however, on a decidedly anti-climate agenda, will see Pacific Island countries reject the United States as a partner in and of the Pacific. A withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and any reduction in climate action will symbolise that the United States is divorced from the anxieties of the region, fracturing the bilateral and multilateral support needed to secure its interests.
The Pacific region has loudly and repeatedly cited climate change as its biggest security threat. In 2018, the Pacific Islands Forum endorsed the Boe Declaration, which recognised that “climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific”. The Declaration signalled what academics call “collective diplomacy”, a growing uniformity in the region on the climate issue. The Declaration has been reaffirmed by the forum every year since and confirms a “commitment to progress the implementation of the Paris Agreement”, which Trump has once exited from and proposes to do again. Whether the California wildfires change Trump’s climate calculus is yet to be seen. However, it seems unlikely given the disaster has been pinned on “poor leadership”, “government mismanagement” and “not climate change”.
The stance by the Pacific on climate is unsurprising given the existential nature of the threat. Six of the world’s 20 most disaster-prone countries are in the region, with whole islands lost and villages relocated due to rising seas. Population surveys have shown that climate concern extends beyond the political elite, and Pacific Island communities look to action and leadership on climate change as a basis for genuine and trusted engagement.
By adopting regressive climate policies, the Trump administration will expose American engagement in the region as disingenuous. It will betray the nations that the United States attempts to call “family” and sever any of Biden's claimed “profound ties”, if there ever were any. The United States will find itself increasingly ostracised from the region’s multilateral discussions, and will struggle to build the bilateral ties needed to protect its interests.
A telling example of what the Trump administration can expect to meet in the region comes from Australia. In 2018, Tuvalu’s then prime minister Enele Sopoaga warned the Morrison government that its flagship Pacific “Step-up” policy risked failing due to climate inaction.
“We cannot be regional partners under this Step-Up initiative – genuine and durable partners – unless the government of Australia takes a more progressive response to climate change … They know very well that we will not be happy as a partner, to move forward, unless they are serious”.
In rejecting decisive climate action, the United States is forgoing its ability to engage and influence the region, leaving a gap in Pacific engagement for other powers to fill. And, as regional leaders have previously cautioned, this risks pushing nations closer to a partner offering immediate climate solutions, China.
About the author
Oliver Sinclair
Oliver Sinclair is a practising lawyer and is studying a Masters of International Relations at the Australian National University.
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