Trump and Xi put Southeast Asia in a bind – giving Canberra a moment to move

When Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the American president has said he expects the Chinese leader to greet him with “a big, fat hug.” While Southeast Asians would like to see a measure of stability in the US-China relationship, they find themselves in a double bind – concerned about the potential breakdown of relations between the world’s two largest powers, yet wary Trump and Xi might cut a deal that undermines regional interests.

Southeast Asian countries worry about growing dependence on China as well as the risks posed by an erratic and revisionist United States. According to the latest ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s annual State of Southeast Asia survey, published in April, anxieties about US leadership under Trump overtook the previous year’s top concern: aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.

When leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathered last week in Cebu in the Philippines, the depth of regional frustration with the conflict in Iran was unmistakable. In the statement that followed the summit, ASEAN leaders “expressed serious concern over the … situation in the Middle East, which poses a grave threat to … regional and global peace and stability,” and “reaffirmed the obligations of all States to resolve their differences through peaceful means, and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations.”

Senior officials across Southeast Asia have expressed clear displeasure with Trump’s disruptions. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has opined, “This war should not have taken place,” while Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has labelled the United States “a revisionist power.”

Yet frustrations with the Trump administration’s unilateral foreign policy have not prompted Southeast Asian states to align with China. Their approach, for the past decade, has been to hedge between the United States and China in a bid to prevent either power from dominating the region. While many ASEAN states have made efforts to shore up ties with Beijing, the region has also expanded partnerships, including with Japan, South Korea, Australia and even Russia, in an effort to broaden diplomatic, economic and security ties.

Vietnam hosted Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on a state visit earlier this month, following a visit by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in April. Hanoi signed agreements covering nuclear energy and technology cooperation with Korea, as well as energy and critical minerals with Japan.

Also last month, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto paid a visit to Moscow, where he held a five-hour-long meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Prabowo was accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Sugiono and Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, signing deals to secure Indonesian access to Russian oil and gas.

Southeast Asian countries have been hit hard by rising energy costs as a result of the US blockade of Iran. Many are now exploring alternate sources of energy in response to the crisis, including with Russia.

Meanwhile, the Philippines and Vietnam, which previously strengthened security cooperation with the United States due to China’s aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, have sought new defence partners in response to US unpredictability. The Philippines, a US ally, signed a reciprocal access agreement with Japan in 2024 and has expanded military exercises with Australia.

These shifts carry real implications for Australia, which has relied on its alliance with Washington and a robust US military presence in Asia for security assurance. The recently announced defence treaty with Indonesia shows Australia bolstering ties with the region even as the Albanese government has doubled down on the United States alliance. Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei have also reached new agreements with Australia to ensure a steady flow of fuel and food supplies.

The Trump-Xi meeting will be closely scrutinised for signals of stability in the world’s most consequential relationship. But with Southeast Asia keeping both powers at arm’s length, how far Canberra moves to fill that space will depend less on what happens in Beijing than on whether Australia is willing to show up with something concrete to offer.