Is the United States really planning a proxy war in Myanmar?

There is a school of thought, found mainly in South Asia, that claims the United States and its allies are preparing to launch a “proxy war” in Myanmar. The operation would ostensibly be aimed at destroying Myanmar's armed forces (Tatmadaw) and denying China access to the Indian Ocean.

Over the past few years, such claims have been promoted by a number of articles and editorial comments in local news outlets and on some websites. The basic outlines of the narrative are as follows:

1. US officials, including members of the State Department, the National Security Council, the Charge of the US embassy in Yangon, and the Deputy Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, have all reportedly travelled to Bangladesh to work out the details of the planned operation with Sheikh Hasina’s government.
2. Before the Bangladeshi prime minister fled to Delhi in August 2024, she is said to have been reluctant to become involved but was unable to resist the pressure being applied by Washington. This reportedly included threats by the United States to throw its weight behind her domestic opponents.
3. A key feature of the US plan was the reported establishment of a “massive supply dump” in Bangladesh, to support military operations in Myanmar by insurgent groups such as the Arakan Army and Chin National Front. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army was also said to be involved.
4. It was claimed that at least three divisions of the Bangladesh Army were preparing to support the US-backed operation, mainly through the provision of logistics, supplies and tactical support to anti-junta forces inside Myanmar.
5. In addition, the United States was said to be helping Bangladesh build a “massive facility” near Cox’s Bazar, from which Turkish drones would be launched against the Tatmadaw. The aim was reputedly the “complete defeat of the Burmese military”.
6. The United States was also said to be “seriously considering” the imposition of a “Bosnia-type no-fly zone” over Rakhine State to deny the Myanmar Air Force freedom of action in support of the junta's troops. A US aircraft carrier would reportedly be stationed in the Bay of Bengal to conduct these operations.
7. US naval vessels in the Bay of Bengal were said already to have conducted “coast-kissing operations” in order secretly to supply members of Myanmar’s opposition movement with arms, ammunition and other military supplies.
8. In related reporting, an article referred to “Western intelligence agencies … fuelling an armed rebellion against the Myanmarese generals … from the hideouts in Thailand (sic)”. Such reports have been dismissed by some observers, but they are still circulating online.
9. Earlier this year, such activities were linked to reports of “thousands” of British and American mercenaries secretly entering Myanmar from Mizoram State, with the aim of training ethnic insurgents based in Chinland. One Indian observer has suggested that they were part of a “possible covert operation”.
10. The ultimate aim of all these plans was said to be the creation of one or more independent states around the Indian and Bangladesh borders that could control Beijing’s economic corridor from Yunnan and deny China access to its joint port facilities at Kyaukpyu on Myanmar’s west coast.
11. As a sweetener, to win the backing of the Bangladesh government, the United States reportedly promised that, if these military operations were successful, an “aid corridor” would be established to repatriate one million Rohingya refugees back to Rakhine State.

To date, these stories have gone largely unchallenged. The Democratic Voice of Burma has picked up some claims but, generally speaking, they have not been given wide circulation.

This lack of exposure is probably a blessing, as these stories are nothing short of incredible. None of the claims made have been supported by hard evidence, nor have they been directly confirmed by any of the key actors involved. Considered from a logical, objective viewpoint, they simply defy belief.

The likelihood of any Western country actually going to war in Myanmar, even through proxy forces, is vanishingly small. No strategic imperative, as regards China’s long-term ambitions in the region, for example, would be sufficient to overcome the military problems and political risks that such involvement would entail, even if it could be conducted secretly.

None of the claims made have been supported by hard evidence, nor have they been directly confirmed by any of the key actors involved.

Also, while foreign countries and international organisations have expressed support for Myanmar’s opposition movement since the 2021 coup, and provided a measure of humanitarian assistance, none is likely to stray beyond the bounds of what is considered to be “non-lethal” aid. No clandestine attempts to do so would remain secret for very long.

Similarly, any mercenaries who secretly entered Myanmar to assist the armed opposition movement would almost certainly do so at their own initiative, not as the agents of a foreign power. Indeed, only a small number are known to have done so since the 2021 coup, and their impact has been minimal.

As already noted in The Interpreter, Myanmar has a reputation for attracting bizarre claims of shadowy deals and secret operations. The lack of hard information, the fertile imaginations of activists and some other observers, and the willingness of some credulous news outlets to publish unverified reports, all lend themselves to both misinformation and disinformation.

The latest round of stories seems to be yet another, albeit extreme, example.