The effects are not always obvious – countries will still turn to Washington especially as a necessary partner – but can result in greater pushback from countries such as India when questions of internal domestic issues arise. The more Western countries are seen not to follow through on the values they preach, the more pushback they will receive. And this goes beyond governments. Organisations that advocate for inclusive policies would be unable to point to Australia as an example; and genuine efforts to safeguard the rights of minority communities will face more resistance.
India’s partnership with Australia has exploded in recent years, across issues of trade and security, cooperation on climate governance, and cultural and educational ties. A focus on community is at the core of many of these new deals, as well as “quiet diplomacy” about rights concerns in India. A perception that Australia has not lived up to its values will be belaboured by many in India, possibly to the detriment of the growing relationship between people, institutions and communities.
A “Yes” vote, conversely, will be feted and hailed as an important step to counter internal fissures, even if the result itself will ultimately be a short news cycle in India. But while that can be expected in today’s news world of fast communication and social opinion, there is also the more enduring question of trust.
With Indians one of the fastest growing migrant groups in Australia, trust is determined by more intangible senses, with people asking themselves whether Australia will take care of its communities, including migrants, or are scattered instances of racism and discrimination likely to grow. These answers, of course, have no direct connection to the referendum vote but are in the social milieu that determines attitudes. A display of majority support for Indigenous Australians can only help. A potential trust deficit with the Pacific Island countries on a negative vote could undermine any joint efforts on climate between Australia and India in this region or the larger Indo-Pacific.
Australia and India’s growing regional collaboration has been based on a variety of shared interests, including a commitment to climate resilience efforts, diversifying from China, and addressing a deficit on global leadership. None of this is likely to change drastically regardless of the vote. Even with a “Yes” vote, Australian policymakers might be reticent about speaking seriously on India’s internal politics. A “No” vote and continuation with the status quo will be regarded as a missed opportunity, even from a friend like India.