Europe, explained.
Moldova's President Maia Sandu attends a joint press conference with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv in January (Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images).
Vladimir Putin has his eyes on a tiny landlocked country that could prove critical in his campaign against Ukraine.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Why Moldova’s election results matter for Europe’s war with RussiaWhy Moldova’s election results matter for Europe’s war with Russia
European politics have been dominated by Russia’s provocative military incursions into Poland and Estonia this month. But on Sunday, the attention of the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will be on the parliamentary election being held in the eastern European state of Moldova. It may be one of the continent’s smallest and poorest countries, but it has immense geostrategic importance.
Located between Ukraine to the north and east, and Romania across its southern border, Moldova is effectively a landlocked buffer state between Russia’s war in Ukraine and the borders of the EU and NATO. And its election outcome has crucial implications for Ukraine and Brussels.
“We commend Moldova for maintaining stability in a challenging regional environment and for acting as a reliable partner for European peace and security” and in the upcoming elections “it is essential that Moldovans are able to choose their future freely without foreign interference,” EU leaders said in a joint statement in May. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu is equally concerned about her country’s democratic resilience with Russian disinformation campaigns targeting voters for months. “If our democracy cannot be protected, then no democracy in Europe is safe,” Sandu told the European Parliament on 9 September.
Moldova has never been out of Russia’s sights. It was part of the Russian empire in the 19th century, then a Soviet socialist republic from 1940 until glasnost and independence in 1991. Today the country contends with polarisation between the minority Russian-speaking population, who desire closer ties with Russia, and the majority with Romanian and Moldovan heritage who identify with a European future.
The nation’s vulnerability to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical ambitions is accentuated by Transnistria, a separatist pro-Russian territory on Moldova’s northern border with Ukraine. Following a secessionist war with Moldova from 1990 to 1992, it now hosts a deployment of Putin’s troops. But the borders of the EU have, since 2022, been closing in on the tiny enclave with both Ukraine and Moldova granted EU candidacy.
Sandu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are both feeling the heat of Russia’s warfare and have redoubled efforts to strengthen cooperation.
For liberal-leaning Sandu and her pro-EU government, European integration cannot happen fast enough. In the 2021 election, she swept to power with the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), securing 63 of 101 parliamentary seats. Last year, she successfully fought off Russian machinations to claim victory in the nation’s presidential election and referendum on EU membership.
But predictions are that Sunday’s poll will be tight. Voters are concerned about domestic issues, such as slow economic growth, development and soaring energy prices since the ending of Russian energy supplies in January. About 31 per cent of the population of 2.4 million people live below the national poverty line and the GDP per capita remains low at US$7,617 in contrast to US$20,072 in neighbouring Romania.
Polling trends indicate that the main contest is between Sandu’s PAS and the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc with each commanding support of just over 30 per cent. But there are a high number, up to 20 per cent, of voters who are undecided.
In this climate, Russia’s obtrusive tactics are a serious threat. Vote-buying, illicit party funding and paid anti-EU public protestors linked to Moscow-based Moldovan oligarch, Ilan Shor, present other threats, as do fake news stories on social media undermining Sandu’s leadership and slick influencers with toxic messages on TikTok. “This hybrid aggression isn’t necessarily meant to make Moldovans pro-Russian. The Kremlin’s goal is to make them confused, distrustful, anxious, unsure of the future … Such a society can be easily divided and manipulated,” Valeriu Pasa, Chairman of the Moldovan think tank, WatchDog, reported in June.
Sandu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are both feeling the heat of Russia’s warfare and have redoubled efforts to strengthen cooperation. “Moldova’s independence will ultimately rely on Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s kinetic aggression, and Ukraine’s chances of victory and post-war stability increase with the assurance of a resilient and reliable partner in Moldova,” reports the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Russia’s ongoing military offensives in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are of equal concern to Moldova. Especially if Putin’s forces penetrate further west into Odesa – where strikes have occurred in recent days – which has a boundary with Transnistria. “Transnistria provides an obvious corridor for a Russian invasion … Putin has spoken openly about reaching Transnistria through Ukraine, meaning that a break in the Ukrainian lines would leave Moldova defenceless,” claims CSIS. There are substantial challenges to Russia achieving this goal, but Putin might be emboldened if a pro-Russian regime came to power in Moldova.
Experts believe that, if denied a majority at the ballot box, Sandu’s party may have to consider forming a coalition with pro-Russian opposition parties. And a fractured parliament where no bloc has a majority could result in political volatility, claims the French Institute of International Relations. The Moldovan President has warned of the consequences if the country’s European trajectory is derailed. “The Kremlin’s goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine and turn us into a launch pad for hybrid attacks on the EU,” she told media earlier this month.
About the author
Catherine Wilson
Catherine Wilson is a freelance journalist and correspondent reporting on the Pacific Islands region for the international media.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
