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Potential conflict
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
In the event of a military conflict between China and the United States, more than half of Australians (56%) say Australia should remain neutral, an increase of five points from 2022. Four in ten (42%) say Australia should support the United States, down four points on 2022.
It is interesting, however, to compare this to views on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which many experts see as the most likely trigger for a conflict between the United States and China. Australia’s response to such a scenario has also been the subject of growing debate among commentators.
For the first time, we asked Australians if they would support a range of responses, acting together with the United States, if China invaded Taiwan. The vast majority (80%) would support ‘accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia’. A similarly strong majority (76%) say they would support ‘Australia imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on China’.
Two-thirds (64%) would support ‘Australia sending arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government’. Six in ten (61%) would support ‘using the Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan’. The only option not supported by a majority is ‘sending Australian military personnel to Taiwan to help defend it from China’ (42%).
