China, explained.
This week, China test-fired a JL-3 intercontinental-range submarine-launched ballistic missile into the South Pacific nuclear-free zone (Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images)
Did China’s missile test just solve Albanese’s Pacific security problem?
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Beijing’s own goal in the PacificBeijing’s own goal in the Pacific
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been on a hot streak of Pacific diplomacy. Over the past week, Australia has inked three pacts – the Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu, the Ocean of Peace Alliance and the Vuvale Union, both with Fiji – which are reshaping the region’s security architecture. These positive developments have been overshadowed by a Chinese submarine test-firing a missile carrying a dummy warhead into Pacific waters (Opens in new window), which analysts say is a direct warning to Pacific countries (Opens in new window) and a reminder of the PLA's reach and presence.
While the missile test may be a demonstration of China's arsenal, Beijing may have just handed Albanese the ammunition he needs to put the tussle for regional security to bed.
Chinese officials say the launch was planned well in advance, yet many are left wondering why it wasn’t delayed or brought forward to avoid the signing in Fiji. Leaders across the region have confirmed they were given minimal notice of the test. Whatever the truth of the timeline, the optics aren’t good for Beijing, which presents as lacking self-control. A Global Times editorial (Opens in new window) has responded by calling the test “necessary and restrained”, and warning critics they'd “have to accept and get used to” China flexing this kind of reach.
A missile test makes Pacific countries spectators in their own region, much like they were during the Second World War.
The test cuts against the substance of what Albanese and Fiji's Prime Minister Rabuka just signed. China is a party to the Treaty of Rarotonga's (Opens in new window) protocols against nuclear use and testing in the South Pacific zone. The warhead was a dummy, but the missile that carried it can carry a real one, and that capability, deployed in the same waters and on the same day as the Ocean of Peace Alliance was agreed, is exactly what Pacific nations have spent decades trying to keep out of their backyard.
Since Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China in 2022 (Opens in new window), Canberra has changed how it deals with the region. Clever statecraft has produced a run of transactional agreements, with Pacific nations trading access to their waters and infrastructure for concrete gains: climate migration pathways for Tuvalu, economic transformation for Vanuatu, policing and transnational crime capacity for Fiji, and budget support and banking security for Nauru. In each case, Australia has pushed for the same concession: a consultation clause giving Canberra a say whenever a partner considers letting a third party, namely China, into sensitive areas of cooperation.
A missile test makes Pacific countries spectators in their own region, much like they were during the Second World War. Albanese’s opening is to offer something different – partnerships that give Pacific countries legitimacy and agency over their own security, not another arrangement decided over their heads.
Domestically, this can be a win for Albanese. The recent Lowy Institute Poll shows Australians don't feel safe in the world (Opens in new window), and the missile test amplifies that anxiety. The test also makes the case for deeper engagement with Pacific Island countries, despite domestic critics like Pauline Hanson attacking the aid spending that underwrites it.
Today, Albanese is in Honiara for the Solomons’ 48th Independence Day, in the town that sent the last shockwaves through Canberra in 2022 when it signed a security agreement with Beijing. The tone is different this time, with Prime Minister Matthew Wale declaring that China’s missile test was “not something a friend does (Opens in new window)”.
Tomorrow, Albanese will host Prime Minister Marape of PNG and Prime Minister Lord Fakafanua of Tonga, the same day the Pukpuk Treaty with PNG comes into force. It presents as an opportunity for Albanese to sell the idea of the Ocean of Peace Alliance and the potential for the regional security treaty that Prime Minister Wale has been championing.
Pacific leaders have said for years that they don't want their region to be a theatre for someone else’s power contest. They want responsibility for their own security, not protection from it. China just gave them, and Albanese, the clearest possible proof of what they worry about.
About the author
Oliver Nobetau
Oliver (Oli) Nobetau is Pacific Islands Program Director at the Lowy Institute.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
