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Threats to Australia’s vital interestsThreats to Australia’s vital interests
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
Cyberattacks from other countries remain the leading threat to Australia, according to Australians asked about a range of possible ‘threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years’. Seven in ten Australians (70%) see cyberattacks from other countries as a ‘critical threat’, steady from 2023, and a clear 11-point lead over the next highest ranked threat — a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan (59%).
Australians are also seized of the potential for a military conflict in the South China Sea, with 57% rating it a critical threat, level with those who say the same of climate change (which remains steady since 2020). Potential conflicts over Taiwan (59%) and the South China Sea (57%) loom larger as critical threats than active, but more distant, conflicts in Ukraine (46%) or the Middle East (41%).
With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, concern about the impact of ‘political instability in the United States’ on Australia rose by nine points to 41%. However, together with conflict in the Middle East, this was the lowest ranked threat on the list.
While anxieties about Covid-19 have steadily receded, concern about the spread of infectious diseases has not. Half the population (50%) see ‘the spread of infectious diseases internationally’ as a critical threat, 20 points higher than threat perceptions of ‘Covid-19 and other potential epidemics’ (30%) last year. Concern about the threats of ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ (53%) and ‘the rise of authoritarianism around the world’ (51%) both held steady.
