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China, explained.
Liu Jinsong, right, as Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs in November last year, following talks with Japanese officials and prior to his posting to Australia (Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images)
Half of China’s recent ambassadors to Canberra went on to the vice-ministerial ranks – the odds for the new envoy look good.
Canberra will be a proving ground for Liu Jinsong’s promotion pathCanberra will be a proving ground for Liu Jinsong’s promotion path
Within the spectrum of Chinese diplomats, Liu Jinsong is certainly not a “wolf warrior” who attacks Western countries without thinking. However, Beijing’s new ambassador designate in Canberra is a firm executor of China’s foreign policy.
The striking image (Opens in new window) of Liu standing with his hands in his pockets as a Japanese diplomat was photographed caused a stir. His determination to defend China’s interests abroad has also made him an effective Chinese diplomat. He has an opportunity to move into the core of China’s diplomatic establishment.
In China, diplomats seeking further promotion (Opens in new window) have a better chance if they spend long periods in Beijing, rather than doing lengthy service in overseas postings, enter core departments early, and are at the right age. Liu Jinsong’s first director-general-level position was as ambassador to Afghanistan, but he served there for only one year (Opens in new window) before returning to Beijing. He then spent a combined eight years (Opens in new window) as Director-General of the Department of Policy Planning and the Department of Asian Affairs before being posted to Australia as ambassador.
Whether Liu Jinsong can advance into the core of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will depend on his performance in Australia.
Beijing does not treat all director-general-level overseas posts equally.
In China’s foreign relations, Australia is a director-general-level overseas post. It is also a posting where the abilities of director-general-level diplomats can be tested with matters of vice-ministerial-level importance. China has, in fact, on several occasions appointed vice-ministerial-level ambassadors to Australia, such as former ambassador to Russia Wu Tao (Opens in new window) and former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu (Opens in new window). Although not the norm, it highlights Australia’s importance in China’s foreign relations.
Liu Jinsong’s long tenure in Beijing as the head of important departments shows the high regard in which he is held by the Chinese government. At 54 (Opens in new window), even if Liu serves a full term in Australia, he will still be under 60. Based on the ages of successive Assistant Foreign Ministers (Opens in new window), this falls within the average age range for Chinese director-general-level diplomats promoted to the vice-ministerial level. Compared with Xiao Qian, his predecessor as Chinese ambassador to Australia, who was 61 when he left the post, Liu has a greater chance of being promoted to a vice-ministerial position.
A testing post: the Chinese embassy building in Canberra (David Gray/AFP via Getty Images)
The career trajectories of the seven Chinese ambassadors to Australia over the past two decades show that roughly half – including Zhang Junsai (Opens in new window), Chen Yuming (Opens in new window) and Cheng Jingye (Opens in new window) – did not go on to reach the vice-ministerial level after serving in Australia. The other half had either already reached the vice-ministerial level before their posting or went on to be promoted to vice-ministerial positions afterwards. This includes Zhou Wenzhong (Opens in new window), who was promoted to Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Fu Ying (Opens in new window), who later became ambassador to the United Kingdom.
This record indirectly supports the view that although Australia is formally a director-general-level post, it is highly valued by Beijing and has become an important test of whether high-potential diplomatic candidates can advance further. Beijing does not treat all director-general-level overseas posts equally.
Australia is not the only testing post. Middle powers such as Canada and Indonesia also serve a similar function for China. Among Chinese ambassadors to Canada and Indonesia, roughly half likewise went on to hold vice-ministerial-level positions after leaving their posts, including Zha Peixin (Opens in new window), Lu Shumin (Opens in new window), Luo Zhaohui (Opens in new window) and Lu Shaye (Opens in new window) after serving in Canada, and Liu Jianchao, and after serving in Indonesia.
Although Liu Jinsong is regarded as having strong prospects for promotion and has been posted to Australia, his style remains unclear. What can be expected, however, is that Liu will faithfully implement Beijing’s foreign policy and use his performance in Australia as a stepping stone toward promotion into the core of China’s foreign affairs establishment.
About the author
Thomas Yun-Zhe He
Thomas Yun-Zhe He is an assistant research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight in Taipei. He holds a master’s degree from Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
