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A Chinese YY-20A refueling aircraft conducting a flight rehearsal ahead of the 2025 Changchun Air Show on 16 September 2025. (Getty)
Exploring an under-appreciated aspect of China's military modernisation.
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China grows its air-to-air refueling capacity with an eye to TaiwanChina grows its air-to-air refueling capacity with an eye to Taiwan
An army marches on its stomach. Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. Infantry wins battles, logistics win wars.
These are clichés for a reason: they are true.
China does not necessarily need to optimise its force to conduct intercontinental bombing operations.
They are doubly so for any country wishing to project power far from its borders. For long-range air-power projection, a large-scale aerial refueling capability is fundamental. It is a key logistical enabler that allows strategic bombers, for instance, to conduct operations faster and at greater distances. This capability has been a crucial part of the American power projection. In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, for instance, aerial refueling allowed B-2 bombers based in the continental US to fly missions over Afghanistan without having to land once – a 44-hour bombing run.
The US operates the majority of air-to-air refuelers in the world today, with more than 550 in service as of 2025. This is a gap that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) wants to close, and quickly.
Today the PLAAF operates around 35 refuelers, a mix of old Russian planes (IL-78 Midas), converted H-6 bombers (H-6U, H-6DU) and newer tankers evolved from its Y-20 transport planes (YY-20A). For the PLA to truly transform itself into a “world-class” military, as Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated is the intention, this capability must get closer to that of the US.
And it is doing exactly this.
Thought to have entered service in 2024, China has begun to field the Y-20B. This aircraft feature a domestically produced jet engine more powerful than the Russian designs on other Y-20 models, thereby increasing their performance. There was speculation that this new model would be converted into a dedicated tanker, but as more images of the Y-20B have emerged, analysts have suggested that this aircraft is more likely to be a multi-role tanker/transport (MRTT). This would be an important capability for China – a modular aircraft that can fulfil transport and aerial refueling roles.
Since the introduction of the first Y-20 in 2013, China has constructed around 98 Y-20 variants, an average build rate of 8.1 airframes per year. At this pace, the PLAAF could field 45 Y-20B MRTTs by 2030, and 86 by 2035. Assuming, as is a general trend across the PLA, China phases out the H-6U/DU and IL-78 and begins to phase out the YY-20A by 2035, then China’s air force will field over 100 air-to-air refuelers in the next ten years.
While this increase would see the PLAAF still well behind the aerial refueling capability of the US, it is a strong indication of the role Beijing wants its air force to play in the future. China’s military build-up has many dimensions, but key among them is the development of a counter-intervention force to ensure that no allied relief could flow to Taiwan in the event of attempts at forced unification.
Viewed in this way, China does not necessarily need to optimise its force to conduct the kind of intercontinental bombing operations the US did in September 2001. Instead, it would need to conduct operations beyond the first and possibly the second island chains in the Western Pacific. The requirement for airlift over China itself might explain why the PLAAF is pursuing a mass MRTT capability, rather than a dedicated tanker. A modular MRTT can fulfil Beijing’s need to transport personnel and materiel around its considerable territory while also allowing it to push air operations further east and south over the maritime Indo-Pacific.
China’s military build-up has many dimensions, but key among them is the development of a force to ensure that no allied relief could flow to Taiwan in the event of attempts at forced unification.
Australia, along with several NATO countries, operates the KC-30A MRTT. This platform can carry over 100 tonnes of fuel, 34,000 kilograms of cargo, and 270 passengers in its transport role. The newest tanker addition to the US Air Force, the KC-46A, is also an MRTT, with a fuel capacity just under 100 tonnes and a maximum cargo capacity of nearly 30,000 kilograms.
On the Chinese side, the YY-20A has fuel capacity of 90 tonnes. However, the Y-20B is equipped with more powerful WS-20 engines, producing more thrust than its predecessor. Crudely put, greater thrust equals a greater cargo load, meaning that the PLA may have in this aircraft a capability to roughly match that provided of the KC-30A and the US Air Force's KC-46A.
About the author
David Vallance
David Vallance is a Research Associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute.
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