ASEAN, explained.
Indonesian children in North Indralaya District, South Sumatra, wear masks to combat air pollution caused by forest and land fires, 25 September 2023 (Sigit Prasetya/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Jakarta’s ambivalence is a litmus test for ASEAN’s climate solidarity.
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Indonesia’s climate retreat puts the region’s green future at riskIndonesia’s climate retreat puts the region’s green future at risk
The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement last month under President Donald Trump has eroded global trust in multilateral climate commitments. A recent statement by an Indonesian climate envoy dismissing the Paris Agreement as “no longer relevant” has also sent shockwaves through Southeast Asia’s climate efforts. With a new study declaring the 2°C climate target “dead”, this rhetoric casts serious doubt on Indonesia’s commitment to its clean energy transition, and portends a significant impact on ASEAN member states.
As the region’s influential leader, Indonesia’s wavering stance risks emboldening backsliding among neighbours, weakening ASEAN’s already fragile climate cooperation, and undermining hard-won environmental protections in trade and diplomacy. Worse, it could set off a domino effect, locking the region into fossil fuel dependence at a time when the rest of the world is accelerating towards renewables.
If Indonesia downplays the Paris Agreement, countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, or the Philippines may follow, citing “economic pragmatism” as justification for prolonging fossil fuel dependence.
The envoy’s remarks cannot be separated from Indonesia’s status as a major producer of coal, tin, oil, gas, nickel, copper, and gold, nor from the well-documented influence of business elites with vested interests in these sectors. The exits of the first and second Trump administrations from the Paris Agreement in 2019 and 2025 were widely seen as a victory for US fossil fuel lobbies. If Indonesia is now shifting its stance under similar pressures, it signals a dangerous prioritisation of business profit over planetary health.
Indonesia is also among the most climate-vulnerable nations in the world. With more than 17,000 islands facing rising sea levels and intensifying extreme weather, a retreat from climate commitments is not just irresponsible; it is self-destructive.
ASEAN’s climate action has always been fragmented. While Singapore, Brunei, and Vietnam have made strides in renewables, others remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. In 2022, ASEAN fossil fuel consumption subsidies amounted to US$105 billion. If Indonesia downplays the Paris Agreement, countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, or the Philippines may follow, citing “economic pragmatism” as justification for prolonging fossil fuel dependence.
Developed nations pledged $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate finance at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan (COP29 Azerbaijan/Flickr)
The region’s chronic haze pollution – driven largely by Indonesia’s agricultural burning – is a stark reminder of the consequences of weak environmental governance. Each year, slash-and-burn practices for palm oil and pulp plantations not only choke Singapore and Malaysia but also most of, if not all, the mainland Southeast Asian countries with toxic smoke, causing respiratory illnesses and school closures.
The vast amounts of greenhouse gas emissions further exacerbate climate change and global warming. Over the past decade, Indonesia has emitted hundreds of millions of tonnes of CO₂ annually, with fire-related losses reaching $16 billion each year. If Jakarta deprioritises climate accountability, it risks turning seasonal haze into a perpetual health and diplomatic crisis.
Indonesia’s climate shift also threatens ASEAN’s ability to negotiate strong environmental safeguards in trade deals. The bloc has made gradual progress integrating sustainability clauses into agreements with the EU and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, often citing the Paris Agreement as a baseline. A weakened Indonesian stance could water down these provisions, enabling looser emissions standards and deforestation-linked exports, harming not just the region’s green transition but also its global credibility.
Indonesia cannot afford to squander its renewable potential or its credibility by prioritising short-term fossil fuel gains.
For investors, policy certainty is key. Indonesia’s current ambiguous climate stance creates uncertainty, deterring foreign capital crucial for its $600 billion clean energy roadmap. Renewable projects require long-term commitments; mixed signals may drive investors towards more stable markets such as India. Worse, climate backsliding could trigger carbon border taxes from trading partners such as the EU, undercutting ASEAN exports.
Indonesia’s struggles to finance its clean energy transition post-US withdrawal reflect a broader regional financing gap. If global partners disengage, ASEAN could be left without the resources needed to shift away from fossil fuels. The stakes are high: Indonesia alone holds more than 30 billion tonnes of coal, and Vietnam and Malaysia are expanding offshore gas exploration.
Despite developed nations pledging $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate finance at COP29 in Baku, ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn recently warned at the Australian National University that “no amount of money will be enough” given the scale of the challenge. With ASEAN Investment Framework for Haze-Free Sustainable Land Management estimating only $1.5 to $2 billion in funding by 2030, a critical question remains: can the region secure the necessary funds within the next five years? To stay aligned with Paris commitments, ASEAN must leverage peer pressure, stronger financing mechanisms, and stricter enforcement of anti-haze agreements.
Complicating matters further, Indonesia’s new membership of the BRICS bloc may reshape its climate diplomacy. Closer alignment with China – which has been rapidly phasing out coal while expanding renewables – could offer Jakarta valuable insights for a just energy transition. Meanwhile, stronger ties with fossil fuel giants such as Russia, may lead Indonesia to explore alternative financing models beyond Western-led initiatives. Whether this accelerates or hinders regional climate action remains to be seen.
Indonesia cannot afford to squander its renewable potential or its credibility by prioritising short-term fossil fuel gains. As part of the ASEAN community, it must reaffirm that climate action is non-negotiable. Beyond policy, reducing material consumption, embracing sustainable production, and maximising reuse and recycling, including for biomass energy, can drive meaningful change.
About the author
Mutiara Indriani
Mutiara Indriani is an Australia Awards scholar and a PhD candidate at the School of Regulation and Global Governance (RegNet), the Australian National University (ANU), where she applies an interdisciplinary approach to investigating health equity and governance in Southeast Asia.
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