Australia, explained.
Well over half of the PNG population is below the age of 25, and that can carry risks of a youth bulge (James D. Morgan/Getty Images)
Structured opportunity for PNG’s population matters more than geopolitical debates about this partnership.
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The Pukpuk Treaty is a defence deal PNG’s youth can prosper fromThe Pukpuk Treaty is a defence deal PNG’s youth can prosper from
Much has been said in recent days about the Pukpuk Treaty, named after the Tok Pisin word for crocodile, which is found in both Papua New Guinea and Australia. Known for its stillness and sudden power, the pukpuk is a fitting symbol for PNG’s role in this partnership as a nation poised to act decisively in its own interest.
Public debate has focused on sovereignty and geopolitics, some casting PNG as a pawn between the West and China. But an equally important view is that this treaty offers PNG a chance to confront its most pressing internal threat: a youthful population with limited access to opportunity.
At the treaty’s announcement in August, PNG’s Defence Minister Billy Joseph observed that 58% of the PNG population is below the age of 25. One of the main tenets of the treaty is the chance for PNG nationals to serve in the Australian Defence Force. “So you are looking at a very big pool,” Joseph said, “and Australia can have as many as they want.”
PNG can no longer afford to act as an isolated island focused solely on its own affairs. The threat it faces today is internal – a growing, restless youth population with few pathways to progress. Idle youth are not just a social concern, they represent a national security risk. A 2007 study by Population Action International found a strong link between countries prone to civil conflict and those with large youth populations. This demographic pattern, known as a “youth bulge,” is identified by social scientists as a potential destabilising factor in developing nations. Joseph’s offer of 10,000 potential recruits to the ADF is therefore not merely about numbers. It is about purpose, pathways, income, and ultimately, security.
A crowd in Lae on 15 September 2025 for the celebration of 50 years since PNG’s independence (Rodney Braithwaite/Defence Imagery)
This internal pressure is driving PNG to make strategic choices for its own survival. In this moment, Australia stands out as the most obvious development partner, as both nations share common values: democracy, the rule of law, and market-based principles. While concerns around sovereignty have been raised by senior Papua New Guineans, there is also recognition of the doors that recruitment into the ADF could open for PNG’s youth, a pathway presently only available to New Zealanders and eligible citizens of the United Kingdom, United States and Canada.
This will build ties with Australia similar to the experience in recent times with other Pacific Island nations. Consider Fiji, with a population barely a tenth the size of that in PNG. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2021 Census), approximately 69,000 Fijians live in Australia – more than double the 29,984 Papua New Guineans. Across the Pacific, countries such as Samoa, Tonga, and Fiji have long benefited from structured labour mobility schemes with Australia and New Zealand. These programs have not only reduced unemployment but have become economic lifelines, driving remittances back to their home countries and increasing household income. Remittances accounted for approximately 9.2% of Fiji’s annual GDP, according to recent figures from the World Bank.
For Australia, the greater task is to build bridges of opportunity with its nearest neighbour.
PNG, by contrast, has struggled to access these pathways at scale. This disparity stems from a complex set of systemic challenges, including difficulties in securing foundational identity documents such as birth certificates and passports, and navigating stringent work visa requirements. These barriers have contributed to PNG’s under representation in programs such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, which other Pacific nations have accessed more readily.
This imbalance is unfolding amid rising global insecurity and a trend toward closed borders. Around the world, including in Australia, nations are turning inward. US President Donald Trump once promised to build a wall to keep people out, but for Australia, the greater task is to build bridges of opportunity with its nearest neighbour. Where the PALM scheme has fallen short for PNG, the Pukpuk Treaty could offer a new pathway. This defence cooperation presents an opportunity to build shared capability while creating thousands of structured opportunities for PNG’s youth – training, income, and discipline that translate into employability and upward social mobility.
As Prime Ministers James Marape and Anthony Albanese both affirmed at the signing, the treaty is not about militarisation, but partnership. That is what PNG needs. Partnerships that centre not on entertaining the whims and showcase projects of politicians, but on opening real doors to opportunity that empower the citizenry of PNG, who are its only hope for a better future.
About the author
Serena Sasingian
Serena Sasingian is the FDC Pacific Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, with more than 15 years of experience in development and public policy across government, private, and non-profit sectors.
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