The violence immediately brought to the minds of leaders the bloodshed of the 1980s, termed “les événements”. The French High Commissioner, or governor, suggested things were moving “towards an abyss” and cancelled some incoming flights to prevent complications from tourists being unable to access Noumea, while noting that the airport and main wharf remain open. He urged independence leaders to use their influence on the young to stop the violence. The Mayor of Noumea, Sonia Lagarde, described the situation as “extremely well organised guerrilla warfare” involving “well-trained young people” and suggested “a sort of civil war” was approaching.
On the face of it, to an outsider, Macron’s plan to broaden voter eligibility to those with ten years’ residence prior to any local election, unless discussions about the future begin, would seem reasonable. He sees the three independence votes held from 2018–21 as legal, notwithstanding the largely indigenous boycott of the third. (Each referendum saw a vote to stay with France, although support was narrow, declining from 56.7% to 53.3% in the first two votes, but ballooning to 96.5% in the third vote boycotted by independence supporters.)
For New Caledonians, Macron’s positioning is radical. Loyalists see it as a vindication of their position. But for independence parties, France’s stance has been unconscionable. Independence leaders reject the result of the boycotted referendum and want another self-determination vote soon. Some have refused to participate in discussions organised by France, although one of the most recalcitrant elements suggested some discussion would be possible just days before the violent demonstrations. But they have all strongly opposed Macron’s imposing constitutional change to widen voter eligibility unilaterally from Paris. They were affronted by his appointment of a prominent loyalist MP as the rapporteur responsible for shepherding the issue through the Assembly. They have instead been calling for a special mission led by an impartial figure to bring about dialogue.
More importantly, they see the highly sensitive voter eligibility issue as a central negotiating chip in discussions about the future. Confining voter eligibility only to those with longstanding residence on a fixed basis – not by a number of years prior to any local election as Macron is proposing – was fundamental to securing independence party acceptance of peace agreements over 30 years, after France had operated a policy of bringing in French nationals from elsewhere to outweigh local independence supporters who are primarily indigenous. With the inconclusive end of these agreements, differences have only deepened.
Loyalist leaders have accused independence leaders of planning the violence. Whether it was planned or whether demonstrations degenerated, either way it is clear that emotions are running high amongst independence supporters, who feel their position is not being respected. No sustainable solution for the governance of New Caledonia is possible without the cooperation of all parties.
It seems that, regardless of Macron’s evident intention of spurring parties to come to the discussion table, his plan has backfired. Discussions are unlikely to resume soon.