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Pacific IslandsPacific Islands
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
The Pacific Islands region has become a key arena in the contest for influence between China and the United States and its partners. Both superpowers are seeking to expand their roles as security partners in Pacific Islands countries, and are strengthening their development and diplomatic footprints in the region. Australia and New Zealand — both members of the Pacific Islands Forum — have also ramped up their diplomatic, aid, and security sector engagement with the Pacific.
In 2024, a new question tested Australians’ perceptions about influence in the region. One-third of Australians (34%) perceive China to be the most influential player in the Pacific Islands region, slightly more than those who say Australia (31%) has the most influence. Only one-quarter (25%) nominate the United States as most influential, while a small minority (8%) select New Zealand.
The prominence of China in Australians’ perceptions of regional influence accords with previous Lowy Institute Polls, which revealed high anxiety about China’s growing presence in the Pacific Islands. Last year, almost nine in ten Australians (87%) were ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ concerned about China potentially ‘opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country’.
In recent years, the Australian government has expanded schemes to open further opportunities for Pacific Islander mobility to Australia. These include the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme for time-limited work stays, a Pacific Engagement Visa offering permanent residency, and a permanent migration pathway for Tuvaluans under the Falepili Union treaty.
Australians are broadly supportive of the idea of further easing restrictions on Pacific Islanders seeking to travel to or settle in Australia. Two-thirds of Australians (67%) say they would support relaxing visa requirements for citizens of Pacific Islands countries to live, work, and study in Australia, while less than one-third (31%) would oppose it.
